US Navy considers Mediterranean option amid Western Pacific carrier shortage

The US Navy’s current shortage of aircraft carriers has sparked renewed debate about potential strategic realignments, including the possibility of stationing a carrier in the Mediterranean.

The US decision to redirect the USS Abraham Lincoln to the Middle East leaves the West Pacific vulnerable until a newly refurbished aircraft carrier arrives in Japan later this year, defense analysts warn, Caliber.Az reports citing the local media.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, operating near Guam, to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the Middle East. This move follows Austin's earlier directive for the Roosevelt, previously on a Pacific deployment, to replace the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group in the Red Sea. With the Roosevelt returning to the US and the Eisenhower already home, the Lincoln and Roosevelt had been covering the absence of a Japan-based carrier in the Asia-Pacific.

Bryan McGrath, a retired surface warship officer and founding managing director of consultancy The FerryBridge Group, stated that the US Navy's absence in the region underscores to Chinese President Xi Jinping "the fact that the United States does not have enough naval power to cover its requirements."

Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies in Singapore, noted that the Pentagon has concluded that "the situation in the Western Pacific is at least stabilizing for now," citing reduced South China Sea tensions due to an arrangement between China and the Philippines, and relative stability around Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula.

If a major conflict erupts in Asia, "US military power projection capabilities in the Western Pacific are likely to be significantly hampered by the absence of a carrier strike group," he warned. "While land-based assets are valuable, they lack the operational versatility of naval forces. US Navy carrier strike groups are essential for maintaining such capabilities."

The Pentagon’s decision to redirect the USS Abraham Lincoln to the Middle East aims to bolster support for Israel, following the Iranian threat of retaliation after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week, according to Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh.

The US Navy has confirmed to Nikkei Asia that a "carrier gap" in the Western Pacific is now a reality. Contrary to earlier expectations that the USS Carl Vinson would move westward from Hawaii after the Rim of the Pacific exercise, it will instead return directly to San Diego.

The USS George Washington is set to be the next carrier deployed to the Western Pacific, replacing the USS Ronald Reagan in Yokosuka, Japan, later this year. The USS George Washington is expected to arrive in the autumn.

Despite having the world's largest carrier fleet with 11 ships, many are either undergoing maintenance or have recently returned from extended deployments, leaving only a few available for immediate deployment. Currently, the USS George Washington is undergoing a "hull swap" with the USS Ronald Reagan in San Diego, involving the exchange of 350 sailors, or 13 per cent of the Reagan's crew, with those from the George Washington.

The current shortage of aircraft carriers could reignite discussions about stationing a US carrier in the Mediterranean Sea, according to naval experts. Presently, the US Navy maintains a forward-deployed carrier only in Yokosuka, Japan.

"One potential solution to adjust the distribution of US carriers globally would be to base a carrier in the Mediterranean, possibly in Greece, Italy, France, or Spain," said a congressional source who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The US Navy traditionally oversees three major maritime regions: the North Atlantic and Mediterranean around Europe, the northern Arabian Sea, and the Western Pacific. The northern Arabian Sea presents significant logistical challenges due to its distance from the US, which requires a high station-keeping multiplier. This multiplier reflects the number of ships needed to maintain a continuous presence in a given area, factoring in travel time, personnel rotation, and maintenance needs.

Stationing a carrier in the Mediterranean could simplify maintaining a US naval presence in both the Mediterranean and the Pacific, the source noted.

In the early 1970s, the US considered basing a carrier strike group in both Japan and Greece, but the Greek arrangement was scrapped following a military coup.

Bryan McGrath, a naval analyst, noted that the Biden administration initially aimed to reduce reliance on legacy platforms like aircraft carriers and focus US naval assets on the Western Pacific. However, he argued that this approach has been challenged by real-world demands.

"The administration is beginning to recognize that there is no substitute for a large nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, with its air wing and long-range missiles," McGrath said. "Our global responsibilities and ambitions far exceed our current naval capabilities."