US pins hopes on regional underdog in South Caucasus Washington’s gamble on peace

Sir Winston Churchill once remarked that Americans always find the right solution, but only after trying everything else. This timeless aphorism proves its relevance once again, as we observe some rather evident and simplistic blunders by US leadership in the South Caucasus region. Let’s delve into the latest developments to understand the situation better

"The United States is unwavering in strengthening a sovereign, independent, democratic Armenia that is charting its own course in the region and around the world," US Under Secretary of State Uzra Zeya wrote in her microblog X, posting a photo of evening Yerevan. It is the right of any American and not only American diplomat and official to visit any country of the world, to admire its beauty.

It’s increasingly clear that the United States is making a concerted effort to establish a strong presence in the South Caucasus, likely driven by concerns about losing influence in the region. This push is evident from the recent flurry of American officials visiting Yerevan. USAID Europe and Eurasia Bureau Chief Erin McKee, US Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources Richard Verma, and USAID Chief Samantha Power have all made trips to Armenia in recent weeks. Additionally, an American delegation led by Senator Roger Wicker visited Armenia in July.

Their visits and statements echo the sentiments expressed by Under Secretary for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights Uzra Zeya, underscoring a consistent message from Washington. This diplomatic activity is set against a notable backdrop: Armenia is currently participating in joint military exercises with the United States, titled "Eagle Partner 2024." This collaboration highlights the US's political, military, and financial support for Armenia, despite Armenia's ongoing membership in the EAEU and its "frozen" participation in the CSTO.

At the same time, Russian border guards continue to patrol the Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Iranian borders, underscoring the enduring security relationship between Armenia and Russia. Armenia remains a key player in helping Russia circumvent Western sanctions, and the 102nd Russian military base remains stationed in the country. Moreover, many of Armenia's strategic economic assets are under Russian control.

Given these factors, the attempt to reorient Armenia towards a more Western-aligned path is fraught with challenges and uncertainties. The process of reformatting Armenia under the current geopolitical conditions is likely to be a lengthy and arduous one, with no guarantees of success. Nonetheless, this is the path that American policymakers seem determined to pursue.

It is worth noting that the Armenian publication “Hraparak” has reported that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is planning to seek rapprochement with Russia this autumn. According to the newspaper, “Pashinyan recently mentioned in a private setting that 'unexpected changes' are anticipated in the country’s foreign policy during the fall.” The report suggests that Pashinyan aims to mend relations with Russia, describing this move as a return to “Mother Russia” akin to a “prodigal son”.

According to its source, the Armenian Prime Minister said that the EU "did not accept" Armenia, did not finance it properly, did not take steps in this direction and did not provide sufficient security guarantees. "While this information comes from an Armenian media outlet and reflects official Yerevan's dissatisfaction with EU policies rather than with the US, it also suggests that the Armenian leadership may seek to restore its relationship with Russia. Given Armenia's significant political and economic dependence on Russia, such a shift seems inevitable. The US, despite its efforts, is unlikely to alter this situation, as it struggles to prevent the South Caucasus from slipping further away. This process has been accelerating since Azerbaijan's restoration of its territorial integrity through its historic victory in the 44-day war and a decisive one-day anti-terrorist operation in the Karabakh region."

After that, the United States no longer had the opportunity to play the role of a mediator in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. This is also because Baku and Yerevan, without any outside help and on a bilateral basis, are resolving all the remaining issues, including the process of border delimitation and demarcation. And what does official Washington do in the current circumstances? It carries out obvious provocations. Here it is Uzra Zeya who confirmed the information that a representative of the American army will work in the Armenian Ministry of Defence. "This is a long-awaited event," she uttered.

Baku has taken note of these developments and drawn its own conclusions. It is clear in our country that the US, with its foreign policy driven by attempts to manage chaos, is losing its global authority. This decline is also influenced by the internal political crisis within the United States, culminating in the recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump. Prior to this, global observers had already witnessed concerning norms, such as sitting presidents lying under oath and the election of candidates with fewer votes being declared winners. These issues have contributed to a broader perception of diminished US credibility on the world stage."

Moreover, it is increasingly evident to the global community that the United States is neither willing nor able to guarantee the defence, security, and territorial integrity of its allies. Ukraine serves as a prominent example of this, as did Georgia during Mikheil Saakashvili's presidency. In August 2008, it was clear that the US failed to protect Georgia, which at that time was even more pro-American than Armenia is today. This failure led to a shift in Georgia's perception of its Western allies, contributing to the rise of the Georgian Dream party in power.

Yes, we observe attempts by the United States and the EU to exert pressure on official Tbilisi. However, these actions reveal their own weakness and hypocrisy, further highlighting the ineffectiveness of American strategy in the South Caucasus. By placing their bets on a failing state in the region, the US only reinforces its own misjudgment. A more strategic decision would have been to support Azerbaijan, the leading state in the South Caucasus. This should have been done earlier, particularly when Armenia was occupying our lands—a period when the US supported the occupying state. This is a historical fact that will not be forgotten in Azerbaijan.

By Akbar Hasanov