What do the Pentagon's leaked classified documents tell about the Russo-Ukraine war? To attack or not to attack

On April 9, 2023, the US media reported about highly classified Pentagon documents leaked online, which provided a rare window into how the US spies on allies and foes alike, while others reveal the degree to which the US has penetrated the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Russian mercenary organization Wagner Group, largely through intercepted communications and human sources, which could now be cut off or put in danger. Many of the documents are dated from February to March, appear to be briefing slides prepared by the US military's Joint Staff and refer to information gleaned from an array of US intelligence agencies, including the CIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Reconnaissance Office, which oversees US spy satellites.

The incident prompted a reaction on the top level, as the Pentagon is investigating how the leak impacts US national security. Many open questions surround the leak, including where it originated from and whether all of the documents circulated on various social media platforms are authentic. Multiple offices, including the FBI and Department of Justice, are working to identify the source of the leak. US officials have not ruled out the possibility that pro-Russian elements were behind the leak.

Of greater concern, some experts, and the Ukrainian government, the US leaked documents critically assess the ongoing Russo-Ukraine war and the perspectives of Kyiv to maintain the current level of resistance. For example, the Pentagon documents suggest that most of Ukraine's critical national infrastructure outside Kyiv and two other areas in southwestern Ukraine will no longer have air-defence cover, with the number of unprotected critical sites jumping from six to more than 40.

Earlier in one of his interviews, President Biden rejected calls to send more fighter jets to Ukraine, saying Ukraine “doesn’t need F-16s now.” Many were surprised, as the documents paint a different picture from Biden's stance earlier that month. After the leak, Ukraine has altered some of its military plans to avoid possible ambush of positions by Russia. Indeed, the recent leak is a grave risk to national security and has the potential to spread disinformation.

On the other hand, the leak of documents perfectly demonstrated and proved the fact that the US obtained a much clearer picture of Russian military operations than it does of Ukrainian planning. However, the contents of the documents raised immediate questions about whether the leak could endanger human sources or prompt Moscow to make changes to its plans vis-a-vis Ukraine that could hinder Washington's ability to gauge its next move.

Another major problem with the leaked documents is that they also seemingly show how the US keeps tabs on allies and partners like Ukraine, South Korea, and Israel. One of the documents even points to the US spying on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy amid his desire to use drones to strike Russian troops based in Russia who were likely headed for Ukraine. That could explain, in part, why the US has been reluctant to provide Kyiv with longer-range weapons.

Although many US officials demonstratively expressed solidarity with Ukraine and confidence that Kyiv has enough potential to deter Russia’s upcoming attack, the classified documents sceptically assess Ukraine's combat capabilities pointing to looming issues with air defences and munitions supplies as Kyiv preps for an expected spring counter-offensive that's heavily dependent on slow-to-arrive Western arms. Moreover, the documents also underscore lingering problems with Russia’s own military offensive, predicting that the result will be a stalemate between the two sides for the foreseeable future. Simply put, in case of a major offensive in summer, Moscow may fall short of artillery ammunition and missile stockpiles.

Notwithstanding that the leaked documents do not provide sensitive information regarding Ukraine's counter-offensive operation, official Kyiv will likely alter plans and take additional security measures. Considering the current situation around Bakhmut and casualties on both sides, it is fair to note that Ukraine's long-expected counter-offensive may stall for a while amid logistics problems and Western ammunition yet to arrive. Even though the additional weaponry will be delivered on time, the Ukrainian forces still need to integrate new equipment and new troops and ensure that a sufficient supply chain is in place.