What does Donald Trump’s peace plan mean for Ukraine? Sponsoring the war

In light of the heated presidential race in the United States between former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden, many argue that the latter's chances for re-election in the upcoming November election seem poor.

On July 16, the Republican party confirmed Donald Trump as the party's candidate in the November election shortly after the former president survived a failed assassination attempt during his rally in Pennsylvania. However, many European leaders and NATO allies expressed their scepticism regarding Trump's victory in the November election a few months ago, and now a few doubts about his re-election.

Hence, such a scenario boosts concerns within the European Union and NATO. In his presidential campaign, Donald Trump clearly signalled that he would withdraw the US forces from Europe and downgrade involvement in NATO. The new US administration's potential revisionist stance in terms of European security would negatively impact Kyiv in the ongoing Russo-Ukraine war. Since the war unfolded in 2022, the US has become Ukraine’s primary arms supplier, including financial aid. Despite long debates and delayed aid, the Biden administration maintained continuous support for Kyiv amid Russia's military gains in the eastern territories.

As such, recently, Donald Trump revealed his plans to "end the war in Ukraine" if he wins November’s US presidential election and has developed “well-founded plans” for doing so. Hence, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he takes US presidential candidate Donald Trump's comments "seriously" and that he could bring about a quick end to the fighting in Ukraine. Indeed, Trump’s remarks regarding negotiations with Russia on the Ukraine issue caused an outcry in Europe and Kyiv as it hinted that Ukraine might be six months away from losing military aid from the United States.

Although Trump’s team did not disclose the specific details of his peace plan, many suggest that the proposal consists of pushing Ukraine to cede Crimea and the Donbas border region to Russia. Putin has always claimed to be open to talks on ending the conflict, though earlier demanded Ukraine effectively capitulate as a precondition for a ceasefire. In the view of Donald Trump, the long and costly war between the two nations left no way out for either Kyiv or Moscow. Therefore, his "peace plan" would be completely fine for Ukrainians in terms of giving up some territories in the east in order to stop the war.

Given Trump's view and the so-called peace plan, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed willingness to discuss details with him even before the November elections. Consequently, Zelenkyy’s comments are more than a simple statement as he wants to know if Ukraine would still have the powerful support of the US or be left to fend for itself.

The EU and the United Kingdom are also concerned about Trump's statements because if he returns to power and blocks support for Ukraine, Putin will likely gain an advantage and try to end the war on Russia's terms. This is an unacceptable event for the West, as Europe as a whole will be at risk. The positive signals from Donald Trump will likely become a plan B for Moscow, emboldening it to wait for the results of the November elections while avoiding a major offensive operation.

Notwithstanding Donald Trump’s stance and signals toward Russia, the US government will unlikely cut military and financial aid to Ukraine due to its national security concerns in the case of Russia's military victory. Undoubtedly, Donald Trump's next administration will put enormous effort into striking a ceasefire deal between Kyiv and Moscow. However, if the Kremlin rejects peace efforts, Washington may re-launch Ukraine's supply until the situation in the frontline changes in favour of Kyiv. Also, the abandoning of Ukraine amid the imminent threat of invasion would have negative repercussions on the US's image in Europe, enabling other countries to mend ties with Russia and China and establish economic partnerships.