What to expect from the EU-Ukraine Summit in Kyiv? Long way to go to the membership

On February 3, 2023, the European Union's top officials, including the president of the European Commission, Ursula von Der Layen and president of the European Council, Charles Michel, visited Kyiv to attend the first-ever EU-Ukraine summit nearly after a year of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Although the detailed agenda of the summit seemed to be mostly confidential, independent sources claim that the main topic of the discussion was Ukraine’s ascension to the EU in 2023, additional military aid to Kyiv, and food security.

Nonetheless, top EU leaders attending the summit still need to bring promises that the war-torn country could join the bloc anytime soon. In fact, Brussels offers only vague assurances about moving the process forward once all EU-mandated milestones are met. Hence Brussels poured cold water on Ukraine's hopes that it could swiftly join the EU during a two-day summit in Kyiv.

The EU first granted Ukraine formal candidate status in record time last year, shortly after the invasion campaign was launched. However, the status did not ease Kyiv's efforts to become a full-fledged member of the EU. There are several reasons for such an outcome, as the process may take years, as in the case of Georgia.

Moreover, the EU countries have split over how quickly the bloc should try to move Ukraine through that accession process. Although the international community openly expresses solidarity with Kyiv in light of the brutal invasion by Russia, Ukraine still has a long way to go to get membership status, which depends on the successful implementation of main obligations by the local authorities. The main requirement of EU membership is indeed an anti-corruption policy and reforms of the country's judicial system to ensure transparency.

Nevertheless, the recent arrests and resignations of the top Ukrainian officials within the anti-corruption efforts demonstrated that Kyiv authorities need a more credible policy to build a credible track record. At the end of January 2023, the deputy of Ukraine's defence minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov resigned from his post due to a scandal involving the purchase of provisions for the Ukrainian military.

Food contracts were allegedly signed at inflated prices. Also, the deputy head of Ukraine's presidential office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, said he had asked the president to relieve him of his duties. Tymoshenko was among officials linked last September to the embezzlement of aid earmarked for Ukraine's southern Zaporizhzhia region worth more than $7 million.

The mass resignations and corruption investigations did not go unnoticed in Brussels, as the EU acknowledged the considerable progress that Ukraine demonstrated in the recent months towards meeting the objectives underpinning its candidate status for EU membership, welcomed Ukraine’s reform efforts in such difficult times, and encouraged the country to continue on this path and to fulfil the conditions.

Another crucial factor that makes Ukraine's path to EU membership more complicated is the position of countries like Germany and Hungary with their confusing statements regarding the Russo-Ukraine war and Kyiv's possible membership in the EU and NATO.

As such, the Hungarian government right-wing led by PM Viktor Orban even vetoed the bloc's planned €18 billion loans for Ukraine in December 2022, which caused sharp criticism in Brussels and Kyiv. As a result, the EU froze the assets of the Hungarian government to exert more pressure on it to cease its veto policy and reach a compromise. When Orban’s government assured the EU to proceed with the aid package to Ukraine, the EU freed up some €1.2 billion for Hungary, though Hungary will still need to convince its fellow EU members to obtain the remaining €6.3 billion.

In the case of Germany, it strictly opposes a comprehensive military aid package to Ukraine that includes long-range missiles and artillery howitzers, referring to the risks of “further escalation of the conflict," which also dragged mounted criticism from Ukraine and Western partners.

Notwithstanding the results, the EU-Ukraine summit in Kyiv was a triumph of diplomacy against Russia's invasion campaign, though it yielded few developments in terms of EU membership for Ukraine. At the same time, the summit demonstrated the vulnerabilities of the Ukrainian government regarding mass reform policy to fulfil the EU's requirements.

However, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky used the opportunity of the summit to voice concerns regarding weapon and ammunition shortages and call for supplies of long-range missiles to target Russian military objects far from the battleground in Ukraine. Hence, the EU's high-level diplomatic gatherings in Kyiv will likely proceed in the coming months, as it is essential to emphasize the full support of Ukraine at this critical stage of the war.