What would Russia achieve by capturing Ukraine's Vugledar? ISW assesses strategic gains

Russian troops have advanced to the outskirts of Vugledar in the Donetsk region, but analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that this move is unlikely to provide significant operational advantages for future offensives in the western part of the region.

Currently, Russian forces are attempting to push from the northeastern flank of Ugledar via Vodyanoye and from the southwestern flank through Prechistovka, likely aiming to encircle Ukrainian troops in Vugledar and compel a retreat, Caliber.Az reports citing the think tank's latest assessment. 

While it is possible for Russian forces to capture Vugledar, the speed and ease of this operation will largely depend on the decisions made by Ukrainian commanders. If Ukrainian forces choose to defend the town, the battle could be challenging, given that it has been fortified for the past two years.

ISW warns that delays in capturing Vugledar could be exacerbated by autumn rains, which may hinder Russian movements around the town.

Moreover, the potential capture of Vugledar is not expected to significantly alter the dynamics of offensive operations in western Donetsk. Analysts point out that Vugledar is not a crucial logistical hub, as Russian forces already control most of the major routes leading to it. Seizing the town would not grant them access to new supply lines or effectively cut off Ukrainian logistics.

Additionally, taking Vugledar would not inherently provide a strategic advantage for launching further offensives in other areas of western Donetsk, according to ISW.

By Tamilla Hasanova