Will Azerbaijan & Armenia break boundaries to sign historic peace deal in 2024 Optimism shrouded in shadow & mystery

In an era marked by unprecedented connectivity and interdependence, the world finds itself grappling with an alarming surge in conflicts that are posing significant threats to global peace.

The first of a series of analyses aims to dissect key geopolitical flashpoints, shedding light on the evolving Azerbaijani-Armenian peace process and continue covering the Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza, the Houthis' strategic moves in the Red Sea, the Russian intervention in Ukraine, the Iran-Pakistani tensions, Tehran’s strikes on targets in Iraq, the China-Taiwan standoff, and the lingering Russian-Georgian discord, to name but a few, in next publications.

At a time when global peace is in danger with conflicts in most parts of the world simmering, threatening to turn whole regions into theatres of war with numerous key and secondary actors ready to take sides proceeding from their national interests with or without any casus belli to justify their arguments. What is intriguing is that almost every conflict is plotted and instigated under the guise of preventing threats to the global order, with an outright desire to meet their national interests.

With so many vital issues at stake, accompanied by permanent conflicts in need of resolutions and human-induced catastrophes to be tackled, the emergence of new ones indicates the failure of the global order to properly function and prevent them from spreading to new regions.

South Caucasus at a crossroads

At this very time, the South Caucasus, specifically Azerbaijan and Armenia, is going through daunting challenges to surmount obstacles to bring peace to the battle-weary region with Azerbaijan tired of listening to the same excuses of Yerevan year in, year out.

The Karabakh issue - once dubbed as one of the oldest frozen conflicts in the world and the post-Soviet space, was ultimately resolved militarily on the battlefield in September 2023, paving the way to a peace accord between winner Azerbaijan and loser Armenia. Though the second Karabakh War was over more than three years ago, the peace process has not yet been finalized with no light at the end of the tunnel. The path to a final peace deal seemed easy and smooth when cannons stopped firing in 2020.

In reality, Baku and Yerevan are at loggerheads over numerous issues preventing the sides from hammering out vital for future peace treaty. Azerbaijan has resolved militarily the most difficult task it ever encountered in its independence period, de-occupying devastated lands, and is now reintegrating the region that remained beyond the control of the central government, to the overall fabric of economic and political life.

The war won by the Azerbaijani army needs to be finalized at the negotiations table where the picture alters when the defeated party does not immediately feel indirect compelling messages, coercing the enemy to accept the winner’s conditions. Resorting to various pretexts, viewed by expert communities as dodging the commitment to the peace treaty, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan now says Yerevan and Baku want guarantees from each other that they do not have territorial claims.

With no approximate date to sign a peace deal, Pashinyan adds that direct Baku-Yerevan contacts are "more or less active" and the two countries are holding "working discussions" on a peace deal.

Europe’s economic threats

France and some other EU nations along with Russia with huge interests in the region in concert with Iran keep energizing inflexibility and resistance at the negotiating table.

Intriguingly enough, at this stage, Europe and pan-European organizations are in stiff opposition to a peace deal between Baku and Yerevan, stimulating Armenia’s doggedness to the draft peace project, threatening Azerbaijan with economic sanctions.

Addressing the diplomatic corps on January 19, France's new Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne vowed his country’s commitment to support Armenia. On the same day, addressing the French armed forces, President Emmanuel Macron pledged to beef up Armenia’s military forces through cooperation, providing it with equipment, training, and logistical support.

Though bitter, against deep-seated attitudes, nowadays Azerbaijan is more threatened by Europe rather than its northern or southern neighbors. This is disappointing and discouraging for the nation, who, guided by international law, ended Armenia’s occupation to uphold loyalty to high principles and serve justice.

France and the EU with their inept criticism and anti-Azerbaijani resolutions are currently major sources of intimidation, inspiring Armenia’s evasive moves disrupting fragile peace in the region.

Similarly, Baku has lashed out at remarks by EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who said that the latest "territorial claims" by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev were "very concerning".

"Any violation of Armenia's territorial integrity will be unacceptable and will have severe consequences for our relations with Azerbaijan," he said.

“We expressed solidarity with France - their diplomats have been expelled - and we agreed that Azerbaijan needs to return to substantive peace and normalization talks with Armenia. The latest territorial claims by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are very concerning. And any violation of Armenia’s territorial integrity will be unacceptable and will have severe consequences for our relations with Azerbaijan,” Borell said after the Foreign Affairs Council meeting on January 22.

The EU representative was referring to Ilham Aliyev's remarks on 10 January on the principles of border delimitation between Baku and Yerevan. The president said that the two countries' government commissions on border delimitation should name their experts, who would "go along the border step by step to delimitate it".

The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry in a reaction said that Borrell's remarks were "a blatant misinterpretation of facts" and that his "threatening rhetoric" further exacerbated Azerbaijan-EU relations. The ministry also slammed Borrell's solidarity with France over the expulsion of French diplomats from Azerbaijan.

"While being committed to its international obligations and international law, Azerbaijan will resolutely prevent attempts to legitimize any claims and threatening language that runs against its national interests," the statement said. Another blatant move was that of PACE’s January 22 when it did not approve the credentials of the Azerbaijani delegation at the first meeting of its winter session.

German MP Frank Schwabe's proposal on not confirming the credentials of the Azerbaijani delegation was sent to the Monitoring Committee for making a decision. The main reasons are alleged to be Azerbaijan's refusal to allow a visit to the Lachin corridor in 2023, to observe the situation in Karabakh, and meet Azerbaijani "political prisoners".

Days before these remarks by Borrell and others like him, the Azerbaijani president said “unfortunately, the key players of the international community did not share our opinion. On the contrary, they tried to blame us and to engage various pressure mechanisms against us. In other words, we achieved this justice by waging political and diplomatic war at the international level. Therefore, our Victory is even more important”.

Conclusion

As the world grapples with multifaceted conflicts, the international community must engage in robust diplomatic efforts, promoting dialogue and understanding between the parties to be conducive to the signing the long-awaited peace deal. Collaborative strategies that address the root causes of these disputes and prioritize peaceful resolutions are crucial for safeguarding global peace and stability.