Will Bashar al-Assad use disaster diplomacy to maintain his long-term rule? Obstructing humanitarian aid

Following the devastating earthquakes that hit Türkiye and Syria, leaving death tolls on February 6, both Ankara and Damascus witnessed the activation of "disaster diplomacy" that helped to revitalize the relations with the immediate neighbourhood. As in the case of Türkiye, Greece and Israel became the first nations to offer full support amid recent tense ties. The rescue operations in disaster areas boosted the diplomatic normalization between Ankara and Athens that worsened in the last two years.

Unlike Türkiye, Syria did not enjoy comprehensive support from the international community, except for a few regional states, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Greece, Armenia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The desperate need for humanitarian aid has reignited a debate over U.S. sanctions against Syria and whether the U.S. government should lift them to accelerate rescue and relief efforts. Bashar al-Assad’s government is using the earthquake to renew calls to lift sanctions, echoed by some progressive and Arab American groups and activists in the United States.

The lack of relevant technical support and limited humanitarian aid caused catastrophic consequences for Syria’s Latakia and Aleppo regions. For Syrians, the earthquake is "a crisis on top of multiple crises". People have been living in terrible conditions for years now, particularly in the northwest. Hosting around 3.3 million people in need in Idlib province, which is the last remaining holdout of the non-Kurdish Syrian opposition after almost 12 years of civil war.

Moreover, years of fighting and direct attacks on infrastructure by the Syrian government and its ally, Russia, mean medical facilities and other emergency services were already under pressure or non-existent. The majority of the civilians living in this part of Syria were dependent on international humanitarian aid to survive even before this latest disaster.

Notwithstanding the heavy casualties, the deadly earthquake raised hopes of Bashar Assad, the long-term leader of Syria, to set up a dialogue with neighbours and return on a diplomatic track. This comes amid reports that Ankara, a long-term geopolitical rival of Assad, sought diplomatic normalization with Damascus by recently hosting a ministerial meeting under Russia's mediation. The positive outcomes of the defence ministers' meeting could pave the way for the upcoming president Erdogan's meeting with Bashar Assad. However, the likelihood of a presidential meeting soon is low due to recent earthquakes.

In the meantime, Assad’s government took this opportunity window to rekindle relations with the UAE by making a historic visit to Abu Dhabi in 2022 after 11 years pause. This visit was followed by a meeting with the UAE's foreign minister in Damascus days after the earthquake hit Syria. The diplomatic momentum culminated with Assad’s very recent trip to Oman on February 20. Although the rapprochement with Muscat was based on disaster accords, it helped Damascus to reverse diplomatic relations with leading regional actors.

Hence, the gradual thaw with Ankara, Muscat, and Abu-Dhabi enabled Damascus to seek normalization with the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the long-term sponsor of the anti-Assad front since the civil war unfolded in 2011. As such, Riyadh sent a positive signal towards a possible thaw with Damascus during the recent Munich Security Conference, when Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said consensus was building in the Arab world that isolating Syria was not working and that dialogue with Damascus was needed "at some point" to at least address humanitarian issues, including a return of refugees.

In addition to diplomatic statements, Saudi Arabia sent its first aid plane to Assad-controlled Aleppo, a notable gesture from a Gulf state still at odds with Syria's president. Interestingly that Saudi earthquake assistance even had thus far only gone to rebel areas. Indeed, the Gulf’s de-facto leader state Saudi Arabia’s humanitarian aid and positive statements toward the Assad’s government was a signal to other regional Arab states to re-launch diplomatic normalization with Damascus, as the long-term devastating conflict largely neglected regional security creating a huge security gap.

Therefore, the earthquake disaster will yield positive results for Basher Assad, unlike thousands of Syrians that died under rubble due to a shortage of proper medical and humanitarian intervention. Nevertheless, 2023 may witness a u-turn in the foreign policy of regional states of the war-ravaged Middle East, and the potential dialogue with Syria's Assad may pave the way for further sustainable regional peace.