Zelenskyy calls for urgent support as Russia rebuilds military strength ISW analysis

Ukraine has taken steps to address its manpower shortages, but delays and insufficiencies in Western military aid to Ukraine continue to limit its ability to generate effective combat units that can defend critical areas and contest the theatre-wide initiative. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on September 13 that Ukraine "needs 14 brigades to be ready" for an unspecified requirement and that Ukraine has not been able to equip "even four" of these brigades with slowly arriving Western aid, Caliber.Az reports via the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Zelenskyy highlighted that Ukraine has been ramping up its domestic drone production and reallocating equipment from storage or reserve units to make up for the insufficient Western military support. He pointed out that these shortfalls, particularly in armoured vehicles and artillery shells, have resulted in casualties among Ukrainian troops.

On September 16, Oleksandr Zavitnevych, Chairperson of the Defence Committee of the Verkhovna Rada, stated that Ukrainian mobilisation is progressing as planned, with newly trained forces expected to make an impact on the battlefield in about three months. In May 2024, Lt. Gen.

Oleksandr Pavliuk, Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, revealed that Ukraine was working to establish 10 new brigades, but that the main issue was not a lack of personnel, but rather a shortage of equipment.

Meanwhile, Russian efforts to expand the size of its armed forces are part of a broader, long-term strategy that goes beyond the current conflict in Ukraine. This strategy aims to enhance the size and overall capability of the Russian military through extensive, long-term reforms. According to ISW’s detailed reports, which have been underway since early 2023, these reforms include re-establishing the Moscow and Leningrad military districts, forming new army corps, combined arms armies, and mechanised and airborne divisions.

Current Russian military reforms largely reverse the key elements of the reforms introduced by former Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov from 2008 to 2012. Serdyukov’s reforms had reduced the size of the Russian armed forces from 1.3 million to 1 million combat personnel and centralised command and control by eliminating division-level units in favour of brigade-level ones. As the Russian military begins to establish new divisions, army corps, and armies, it must also increase its staffing levels accordingly, at least theoretically.

However, the successful implementation of these reforms and the integration of additional combat personnel are partially dependent on the conduct of the war in Ukraine, as assessed by ISW. Medium- to long-term constraints related to force generation and the economy will continue to impact Russia's ability to sustain a larger military and effectively carry out its planned reforms.