UK defence review flags Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as growing security challenges

According to an exclusive report by The Guardian, Britain is entering a “new era of threat” as emerging technologies such as drones and artificial intelligence are fundamentally changing warfare more than at any other time in history. The government’s strategic defence review, due to be published on June 2, highlights these concerns.

The 130-page document, prepared by advisers to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, warns of the “immediate and pressing” danger posed by Russia, drawing heavily on lessons from the war in Ukraine. It also addresses China, described not as an enemy but as a “sophisticated and persistent challenge,” which has occasionally cooperated with Moscow. Iran and North Korea are identified as smaller but significant “regional disruptors.”

The review depicts the most serious military and security threats Britain has faced since the Cold War, though it stops short of declaring that Moscow’s cyber and sabotage activities have brought the UK into a state of war.

The analysis, led by former NATO Secretary-General Lord George Robertson, does not propose new defence spending commitments but reaffirms Starmer’s earlier pledge to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and 3% in the next parliament. However, it is expected to justify a significant medium-term increase in defence funding, potentially exceeding £50 billion, to be finalised at the NATO summit in June.

Members of the Western alliance are considering increasing core defence budgets to 3.5% of GDP by 2032, with an extra 1.5% allocated to cyber and infrastructure, partly due to pressure from former US President Donald Trump. NATO’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has indicated the summit could agree on a total defence spending target around 5%, with core spending “considerably north of 3%.”

The Guardian further reveals that the review will address the British Army’s size amid reports of internal disputes over raising troop numbers beyond the current target of 73,000. New figures show the army’s full-time trained personnel fell to 70,860 as of April 1—the lowest since the Napoleonic era.

A military source revealed that Defence Secretary John Healey has secured a commitment to increase the army by several thousand troops, though the Ministry of Defence has not confirmed this. Adding 5,000 soldiers would cost approximately £2.5 billion annually, covering pay, housing, and equipment—a necessary investment to meet growing overseas commitments.

Britain and France have agreed to lead a multinational “reassurance force” of up to 30,000 troops to help maintain peace in Ukraine and keep air and seaports open if Russia agrees to a durable ceasefire—something Vladimir Putin has so far refused despite pressure from Trump.

Former national security adviser Peter Ricketts told The Guardian that while investment in drones, cyber capabilities, and AI is critical, the Ukraine war shows that “mass counts” in terms of manpower and equipment, supporting calls for defence spending to rise to 3.5% of GDP.

The Ministry of Defence plans to allocate an additional £1.5 billion to improve military accommodation, targeting urgent upgrades for the worst 1,000 homes, and to create a volunteer home guard to protect airports and sensitive sites from drone and other hostile attacks.

The review panel, chaired by Lord Robertson, also includes retired General Sir Richard Barrons and Fiona Hill, former Russia adviser to Donald Trump, who has suggested that “structurally” World War III has already begun due to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East.

Lord Robertson has described Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran as a “deadly quartet” increasingly cooperating, citing Iran’s drone supplies to Russia, China’s weapon components, and North Korea’s troop deployment in Ukraine.

Prime Minister Starmer is expected to unveil the review’s outline on June 2, with Defence Secretary Healey presenting the full report to Parliament shortly afterwards.

By Tamilla Hasanova