China’s tech rise accelerates despite US export bans, WSJ column warns

In his latest column for The Wall Street Journal, technology columnist Christopher Mims examines how US efforts to curb China’s rise in critical technologies — from AI and chips to EVs and drones — are failing to slow Beijing’s momentum and may even be accelerating it.

The US has imposed sweeping export controls on advanced semiconductors and the tools to make them, aiming to stifle China’s tech sector. Yet China continues to gain ground. Its electric vehicles are cheaper and often superior to American models, its consumer drones dominate globally, and autonomous vehicles are operating in Chinese cities more widely than in the US. It also leads in solar panels and batteries. While the US retains a slim advantage in AI and high-end chips, that lead is rapidly narrowing.

This has sparked a growing debate inside and outside the US administration. Officials close to the White House support strict export bans to protect national security. Critics, including Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, warn that the restrictions are backfiring by helping China accelerate its own innovation and independence. On a recent earnings call, Huang said the bans are weakening US competitiveness abroad while shielding Chinese firms from US competition. China is expected to spend $50 billion on AI chips and servers in 2026—without US firms like Nvidia benefiting.

In response to the bans, China has turned to domestic chipmakers like Huawei, Cambricon, CXMT, and SMIC. Huawei’s new Ascend 910C chips, though only one-third as powerful as Nvidia’s, are packed in bulk into its CloudMatrix 384 AI supercomputers—giving it the edge in total computing power and memory. Analyst Doug O’Laughlin notes that despite using older technology, SMIC has become the world’s third-largest chipmaker and China has ample electricity to support these power-hungry systems.

Those supporting export controls, such as former National Security Council official Bryan Burack, argue that US tech must not aid China’s military development—even at the cost of business. “Are we comfortable helping China create dual-use AI that can acquire targets for guided weapons?” Burack asks.

The strategy of using export restrictions to contain China began in earnest in 2018 when Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross barred ZTE from using US technology, effectively ending its global ambitions. That move, along with successive actions targeting Huawei, forced Chinese companies to buy and eventually build domestic alternatives—kickstarting major investments across the Chinese tech ecosystem.

While Chinese chips were once considered inferior, years of sanctions have catalyzed the country's tech industry. According to Rui Ma, a Silicon Valley-based China analyst, Chinese firms had little choice but to go local. Now, China is closing the gap.

Analysts like Patrick Moorhead believe that China’s tech sector will eventually catch up. With a large, highly trained workforce—including half the world’s AI engineers—and a massive domestic market that allows homegrown firms to scale before going global, China’s momentum is undeniable. Its push for self-sufficiency has also reduced its dependence on foreign supply chains.

Mims concludes that while US export controls have had short-term effects, they may have created a long-term strategic dilemma. The US can no longer dominate the Chinese tech market, and any hope of restoring commercial trust is likely gone. As one expert puts it: “What we have now is not the second-best solution, but a seventh-best solution.”

By Tamilla Hasanova