"Peace agreement with Baku to be swiftly signed If reason prevails in Yerevan" Caliber.Az interview with Russian expert

On August 31, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held a private meeting in Brussels, mediated by President of the Council of the European Union Charles Michel. The talks lasted for more than three hours behind closed doors. The European Council President said after the meeting that the exchange of views had been open and productive. The sides discussed the whole range of agenda issues, adding that the next meeting in this format will take place before the end of November. At the same time, an agreement was reached to form groups through the Foreign Ministry to start working on the text of the peace agreement within a month.

On his return to Armenia Pashinyan also confirmed in a meeting with members of the pro-government faction in the National Assembly that a peace agreement between the sides should be signed before the end of the year.

However, despite this in recent days Armenian Armed Forces units in the Armenian-Azerbaijani border area have been intensively shelling positions of the Azerbaijani Army. Obviously, this state of affairs does not bode well for Armenia and is inconsistent with the spirit of the agreements reached.

What caused the provocations of the Armenian Armed Forces? Does this mean that official Yerevan is going to delay the signing of the peace agreement? Caliber.Az asked the Russian expert on Eurasia Alexander Razuvaev to answer these and other questions.

Our interlocutor pointed out that the balance of forces in the region has not fundamentally changed over the past year and nine months.

"However, in economic and political issues Azerbaijan has become even stronger. Among other things, oil and gas prices have risen, and military-technical cooperation with Türkiye has intensified. At the same time, very important documents were also signed with Moscow. Meanwhile, Armenia's position has not changed - it suffers greatly from the fact that trade routes in the South Caucasus are blocked," the expert said.

Nevertheless, Razuvaev believes that Armenia will drag out the signing of the peace agreement as long as possible.

"A drowning man always grasps at a straw. We need to understand that the Russian peacekeeping contingent temporarily deployed on the territories of Azerbaijan has fulfilled its mission. Karabakh is not Transnistria or South Ossetia, so it is unlikely that Russian peacekeepers will stay in Karabakh beyond the deadline. However, it would be logical to withdraw Russian troops from Karabakh right now.

All that is required from Azerbaijan now is patience. Once the Russian peacekeepers leave, Azerbaijan will be able to restore by force its territorial integrity, which is recognized by all countries, including Russia. But there is a very important point. If this issue is dragged out, Armenia, and its economy, suffer first and foremost, because it is not the richest republic. Therefore, if reason prevails in Yerevan, a peace agreement will be signed sooner. One way or another, a peace agreement will be signed, it is inevitable. The military ratio is unequivocally in favour of Azerbaijan. The 44-day war has also shown that. In other words, it's a matter of time," Razuvaev concluded.