Armenia's soveregnity goes under the hammer
Russian experts comment on Yerevan's crooked policy
INTERVIEWS 30 January 2023 - 15:50
Yerevan has shown in practice that it is ready to sell the country's sovereignty to the highest bidder. The illogic of our neighbours is striking: today, as from century to century, they claim lands of other states, allegedly located on the territory of mythical "Great Armenia". Meanwhile, they don't care about their statehood, giving it to the countries they consider mighty and attractive. The Armenians are now inviting a large, indeed military-intelligence mission from several Western powers, led by France. And the Armenians are no longer concerned about the reaction of Russia, which has always been their saviour and benefactor.
It is worth remembering that Pashinyan essentially blocked the CSTO proposal to send a mission to Armenia and it is now perhaps clear why - a mission from the EU seemed more attractive to Armenians. Yerevan is clearly in euphoria at the virtuosity of its move to provide its territory for a Western paramilitary contingent to undermine the Russian presence in Armenia. It is not ruled out that the activities of the European envoys will not stop there, and subversive work will be carried out against Azerbaijan as well. All the more so because the main coordinating link here is France, which is trying by all means to get a foothold in the region.
The French foul play can be seen with the naked eye, and Baku perceives the arrival of the EU mission in Armenia as a threat to the geopolitics of the South Caucasus, as a demonstration of the hypocritical position of the European Union. The EU, which, we note, claims to be the peacemaker of the region and pretends to be trying to reconcile the sides in Brussels. Russia also expressed its concerns about it, pointing to the main mistake of the EU: Europeans forgot to consult with Azerbaijan.
"We must not forget that we are talking about the border with Azerbaijan and probably if this mission is deployed without Baku's consent, it can simply be counterproductive. Instead of building confidence on the borders, it could create additional irritants," Lavrov acknowledged.
At the same time, as the Russian political scientist and director of the South Caucasus Centre for Strategic Studies Yevgeny Mikhailov noted in a conversation with Caliber.Az, the EU mission in the future will turn into a NATO military mission, that is, a military bloc with which Russia is now in a state of proxy war.
"I assume that Moscow understands this very well. As far as I understand, Baku is also categorically against such a mission, because initially it was agreed in Brussels to stay in Armenia for two months, but not for two years. It is clear that France, which has an openly pro-Armenian position, will play the key role in the mission," Mikhailov said.
There is no doubt, the political scientist points out, that Yerevan has chosen new defenders for itself, but does not openly declare it so far. At the same time, Mikhailov states that "it is a purely Armenian position to see who will win and to continue smiling to the strongest". Everything that is happening now, he believes, may turn into an open squeezing of Russia from Armenia and, consequently, from the South Caucasus, which cannot be allowed.
"When Yerevan signed the Karabakh ceasefire statement, begging Moscow to become its guarantor, Pashinyan was ready for any terms. But time has passed, Moscow is now busy with Ukraine, and on the sly Yerevan decided, in my opinion, to stab its security guarantor in the back. It was quite expected. The question is: could we have prevented it? Yes, we could have prevented it, but we persuaded Yerevan, not demanded it, just as before, and got what we got. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's regret that Yerevan refused the CSTO mission as a warning against the betrayal of Russia's national interests is, in my view, very mild. However, it could be followed by very harsh measures," Mikhailov stressed, believing that this is what follows from the logic of what is happening.
The Kremlin, Mikhailov notes, "still has enough leverage over Yerevan, and one of them is the huge diaspora, which can be hinted at at flows in their business if they do not help to 'gently' resolve Yerevan's controversial policies".
"Again, everything that is happening now in Armenia may once again provoke military action in the region, which is not to Moscow's liking and, in my view, the Kremlin will now hold consultations with Baku and Ankara to agree on a position with regard to the planned EU mission. In any case, in the near future, we should see Russia's response to the hostile actions of its ally Armenia," Mikhailov believes.
However, Armenia itself cannot make any choice. According to another Russian political scientist - Tatiana Poloskova, doctor of political sciences, Russian state councilor of the first class, Armenia has no internal resources even for the political game, which is demonstrated by Pashinyan's fidgeting.
According to Poloskova, "Armenia can only offer and sell itself, this is the essence of Armenian diplomacy. But those who engage in political games with Armenians should remember that 'offering and selling' usually ends with 'betraying'".
"The Armenians betrayed the Turks, presenting it as 'genocide'. Then they contributed a lot to the collapse of the USSR, causing a riot in Karabakh, and not only there, snatched significant pieces of territory from Azerbaijan, and then turned into a 'harmful neighbour'. Now they have betrayed Russia, which is experiencing a difficult moment. Why did they betray? They decided that now it is more profitable for them to join Russia's rivals, and take a piece of it. We will see how long they will last, until European Union got stabbed in the back by the Armenian 'brothers'," the political scientist believes.
According to her, Pashinyan, as an "old political courtesan", sold the territory of Armenia (perhaps, literally, receiving some dividends, not necessarily material) for the long-standing presence of the EU monitoring group there.
Poloskova wonders how many monitoring experts will be real experts in this group and how many representatives of special services, dressed like civilians, will be engaged in an absolutely different activity. What will they be monitoring?
"Monitoring groups are needed when there are facts of genocide, and military actions. And what is here? In fact, Pashinyan has gone for a protectorate not to implement the agreements on Karabakh and to please the Russophobes from the EU.
No one is surprised in Russia. Not even a simple plumber. I can quote one such ordinary Russian, which I happened to hear: "Armenians have started leaving Russia in droves, scared of the Special Military Operation. Let them leave! They cannot be trusted!" the Russian political analyst summed up.
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