Belarusian expert: Armenia has no potential for active combat operations
    Blitz-interview with Andrei Kazakevich

    INTERVIEWS  28 February 2023 - 18:25

    Huseyn Safarov

    Caliber.Az had a blitz-interview with Andrei Kazakevich, Belarusian political scientist, doctor of political sciences, and director of the Institute of Political Researches "Political Sphere".

    - Can the USA and Europe put pressure on Azerbaijan due to the civil eco-action on Lachin road?

    - It is hardly possible to speak of pressure in the current situation. The US and EU have limited opportunities to directly influence the situation in the South Caucasus. The reason, in this case, is both Ukraine, which distracts the main attention of the West and the increasing importance of Azerbaijan's energy resources for the EU. Rather, it can be expected to be moderately active. Unless, of course, there is a new escalation. But the US and EU position will not be a deterrent for Azerbaijan.

    - Are new clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia possible?

    - The risk of clashes remains, but the main issue here is the scale. The conditions for significant clashes do not seem to exist yet. On the one hand, there is a restraining factor in the form of a Russian peacekeeping contingent temporarily deployed on Karabakh territory; on the other hand, there is increased attention to the problem by the world powers.

    Azerbaijan's negotiating position is already strong, but Armenia does not have the capacity to engage in active hostilities. It, therefore, makes sense for Azerbaijan to continue unarmed pressure on the Armenian side, as there is no need to fear an armed response from Armenia.

    - The Azerbaijani president called 2023 "the last chance" for Armenia to finally delimit the border. As the Azerbaijani head of state noted, the year 2024 will follow, and Russia's peacekeeping mission will end in 2025. What will happen next, Aliyev wondered. Do you think the delimitation will take place in 2023? If not, what will happen next?

    - I would consider President Ilham Aliyev's words more as pressure on Armenia in the negotiation process for additional concessions. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Türkiye's position in the South Caucasus has strengthened and Russia's position has weakened, while at the same time, Azerbaijan's importance to the EU has increased. Baku's fortunate outcome of the military clashes with Armenia last September has also played its part. In other words, Azerbaijan's position is stronger than ever. Against this background, it is natural for Baku to seek a solution on its own terms. It is more advantageous for Armenia to take its time and hope that the international situation becomes more favourable for it.

    Nevertheless, the delimitation of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2023 is, in my view, unrealistic. And tensions over this issue will persist for a long time to come.


    Subscribe to our Telegram channel

Read also

Armenian Constitution, Belfast agreement, Middle Corridor and COP29 Amashov converses with Ambassador James Sharp

15 June 2024 - 17:16

Armenia's Pashinyan criticizes CSTO, draws Moscow's ire Expert insights

17 June 2024 - 10:54

Unprotected and unpunished: Turning a blind eye to anti-Jewish attacks in Armenia

16 June 2024 - 11:19

What fate awaits Armenian government after early parliamentary session? Experts analyse

16 June 2024 - 15:36

Armenian PM underestimates leader of Belarus Experts’ opinions at Caliber.Az

13 June 2024 - 19:05

Armenia exists thanks to Collective Security Treaty Organisation Russian experts’ opinions at Caliber.Az

14 June 2024 - 12:20
Latest news

    The Economist: Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un's "bromance"

    Strategic alliances amid global tensions

    18 June 2024 - 04:07

    Desperate Beijing seeks love wherever it can find it

    18 June 2024 - 02:10

    Paris loses crown as Europe’s biggest stock market to London

    18 June 2024 - 00:06

    ASEAN all adrift over South China Sea consensus

    17 June 2024 - 22:04

    Ukraine appeals to bondholders for $20 billion debt reduction

    17 June 2024 - 20:02

    Ammunition explosion at Czech army training area kills one, injures 8 others

    17 June 2024 - 18:42

    Armenian prime minister hints at need for referendum

    17 June 2024 - 18:30

    Turkish MP: Brotherhood of Azerbaijan, Türkiye strengthens OTS power

    17 June 2024 - 18:15

    Russia's president to visit Vietnam, sparking US rebuke of Hanoi

    17 June 2024 - 18:01

    EU plans to crack down on aid theft to Ukraine

    17 June 2024 - 17:44

    Azerbaijani FM holds telephone conversation with Turkish counterpart

    17 June 2024 - 17:29

    US, Canada, Japan, Philippines conduct exercises in South China Sea

    17 June 2024 - 17:13

    Iranian conservative candidate Qalibaf pushes rivals out

    17 June 2024 - 16:58

    Israeli PM Netanyahu disbands war cabinet

    17 June 2024 - 16:42

    Azerbaijani, Russian MPs to discuss interparliamentary cooperation

    17 June 2024 - 16:26

    Reuters: US attempted to discredit Russian, Chinese vaccines during COVID-19

    17 June 2024 - 16:11

    China's expanding influence in Azerbaijan amid shifting global trade routes

    Beijing military in Baku as global trade routes shift

    17 June 2024 - 15:55

    Iranian hackers attacks Azerbaijani, Armenian government organisations

    Iran International

    17 June 2024 - 15:40

    Denmark wants to block passage of tankers carrying Russian oil

    17 June 2024 - 15:24

    Nuclear powers increase military capabilities


    17 June 2024 - 15:09

    Azerbaijan’s green tourism initiatives

    From mountains to volcanoes

    17 June 2024 - 14:53

    Pakistani minister suggests Imran Khan's imprisonment key for economic stability

    17 June 2024 - 14:38

    Putin expected to visit North Korea this week

    17 June 2024 - 14:20

    Global nuclear weapons spending surges to $91.4 billion in 2023

    17 June 2024 - 14:02

    At least eight people killed in India train collision

    Several injured

    17 June 2024 - 13:46

    Azerbaijan's "green" transition as a beacon for oil-producing countries

    The Strait Times article

    17 June 2024 - 13:30

    Muscle flexing or shades of a new Cuban Missile Crisis?

    Analogy with the events of 1962

    17 June 2024 - 13:14

    Musk says Neuralink chips embedded in brain to replace cell phones

    17 June 2024 - 12:49

    Egypt believes BRICS membership promotes economic reforms

    17 June 2024 - 12:32

    Le Monde: Conference on Ukraine fails to achieve significant progress

    17 June 2024 - 12:17

    Israeli general says fighting in Rafah to continue until full liquidation of Hamas

    17 June 2024 - 11:59

    Yerevan's precarious westward pivot

    Political drama unfolds

    17 June 2024 - 11:44

    Bill Gates says ready to put billions into nuclear power to meet US needs

    17 June 2024 - 11:38

    Yemen's Houthis attack two ships, US destroyer in Red Sea

    17 June 2024 - 11:23

    Armenian defence minister embarks on visit to France

    17 June 2024 - 11:08

    US, South Korea, Japan to strengthen cooperation against North Korea's nuclear "threat"

    17 June 2024 - 11:00

    Armenia's Pashinyan criticizes CSTO, draws Moscow's ire

    Expert insights

    17 June 2024 - 10:54

    German official urges halt to payments for Ukrainian refugees to aid mobilisation efforts

    17 June 2024 - 10:39

    Russian conscripts forcibly taken from Vladikavkaz to serve in Armenia

    17 June 2024 - 10:25

    Armenia, US discuss security cooperation

    17 June 2024 - 10:11

All news