Polish expert: Armenia suffers Oedipus complex constantly looking for "patron father"
Caliber.Az talks to Jakub Koreiba

INTERVIEWS  16 May 2023 - 12:53

In an interview with Caliber.Az, Polish political analyst Jakub Koreiba said that Armenia feels like an orphan in today's world, with many complexes - historical, cultural, financial, political, and strategic.

Caliber.Az presents the interview.

- Mr. Koreiba, how would you assess the negotiation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the European track?

- The Western countries, like during the whole thirty years of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, treat the settlement of this conflict mainly as a tool, and if we call things by their proper names, use it to pursue their interests. This is evident in France and Russia, both of which have their own interests in the South Caucasus. In particular, the Russian Federation cares less about peace in the Caucasus and more about what it gets out of it. Luckily, there are countries in the EU, such as Poland, that understand Azerbaijan's position and know what occupation and invasion of their native land mean. And I think it is precisely such countries that will lobby for a just and objective position of Azerbaijan in Europe. Unfortunately, so far the mediators in the negotiations between Baku and Yerevan, including on the European track, often stick to a subjective position.

- As you know, Armenia has expressed dissatisfaction with the activities of the EU long-term mission, which has recently been deployed on its territory. While in Prague, the Armenian PM said a week ago that the EU mission "is not only useless but also brings challenges for the region". What do you think displeases Yerevan and how do you feel about such missions?

- The paradox is that it was Armenia itself that lobbied for the idea of deploying a European mission on its territory. I believe that the Armenian Prime Minister's discontent stems from the fact that this mission does not serve Armenia's interests, which was apparently the initial expectation in that country but rather tries to assess the situation objectively. Fortunately, there are people in the EU mission who are not only not motivated by some kind of political benefit but are also real experts who are interested in ensuring that their work brings positive results for the peaceful settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations.

On the other hand, it seems to me that Armenia's dissatisfaction with the mission is also due to the fact that the country feels like an orphan in today's world, with many complexes - historical, cultural, financial, political, and strategic. A kind of Oedipus complex, where the country is constantly looking for an image of a patron father. So, for Armenia, first Russia, then France, and now the EU were the image of the "father". However, as we can see, Yerevan, which is in a frightened state, is disappointed with both Russia and France. Therefore, unless Armenia finds another self-identity or a different identity in international relations, such situations will be unavoidable.

- What is your opinion about the European Parliament's provocative attacks on Baku, naturally at the instigation of the Armenian lobby? Do they reflect the EU's position on Azerbaijan in general?

- The European Parliament is a lair of all kinds of open, dirty, and grey lobbyism. Absolutely unfair and mal-motivated rhetoric is heard from Poland, as well as from various other countries. Unfortunately, the European Parliament is a sick structure, a deeply pathological institution, which Poland, among others, has had to get used to. No, we are not resigned to this state of affairs, but we are well aware of how difficult it is to fight against this kind of lawlessness. Please note that in the history of European integration, there have been many successes, many positive and good things, but the European Parliament is an exception to the rule, a case where the puzzle pieces did not fit together. So really one has to feel sorry for the Europeans. This very organization is a kind of monster that Poland has to live with and is constantly trying to tell us how to live. In your case, it is only an external institution that does not directly affect Azerbaijan, so you should not pay the slightest attention to provocative attacks of some corrupt individuals who compromise this international body with their activities.

- How do you view the US efforts to resolve the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, particularly the recent meeting in Arlington between the Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers with the participation of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken?

- Generally speaking, the Americans do not care about the Armenians or the Azerbaijanis; they are always concerned only about their own interests. However, in this case, Washington is interested in peace in the South Caucasus. First, the US is seeking to marginalize Russia and Iran in order to minimize their influence in the South Caucasus. Secondly, taking into account that both Russia and Iran are only interested in freezing of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, on the contrary, the US contribution in this direction is quite constructive. For years, Russia has contributed to prolonging the conflict, while Iran is not averse to stirring things up and pushing the countries of the region against each other. So in this case, the US efforts and initiatives, even if they are not disinterested, should suit each side.

- How soon do you think a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan could be reached?

- A timeline for a settlement between Baku and Yerevan is imminent. But in the future the situation will not depend on Armenia itself, since nothing has depended on it for a long time - everything will come down to the relations of its international handlers. In my opinion, the peace in the Caucasus depends on the weakening of Russia - the more it weakens politically and economically, the less it will support Armenia's interests.

- Does Europe need Armenia? For what purpose could the West use it?

- Great powers or countries that consider themselves great powers, such as France, always have an element of cynical attitude towards other, weaker states, which have a whole bunch of problems. So, France not only fails to solve Armenia's problems, but also tries to use this factor for the sake of promoting its interests, in this case in the South Caucasus. Yerevan agrees to any conditions of its handlers or potential masters, which is why Armenia is an ideal country for realization of interests of such under-empires as France and Russia. Armenia's attractiveness to Western countries is that it also agrees to sadomasochism and to all the conditions of its current and potential handlers, which in the end hits its own interests.

- But this does not prevent Armenia from harbouring illusions about EU membership...

- Theoretically, any country that is geographically located in Europe can be admitted to the EU. However, in the case of Armenia, this scenario is unrealistic. Is there any sense for the EU to accept a country that is abandoned by Armenians themselves? A country that has no future, no economy, no infrastructure, no culture? Therefore, if Armenia wants to be accepted into Europe, it should first create a Europe in its country (if it is possible, of course), which may take centuries.

- How do you see the potential for cooperation between Poland and Azerbaijan, as well as your country's position on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict?

- As I have already said at the beginning of our conversation, we, Poles, know very well what war and occupation are, so we feel great sympathy towards Azerbaijan and support its just position on an international level and in Poland itself. In accordance with international law, by the way. On the other hand, if we theoretically accept that it is possible to violate the border of Azerbaijan, this would already mean that any border of a European state, including the Polish one, can be violated. Therefore, the restoration of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity concerns not only your country's national interests but is also a matter of principle for everyone, including Poland. Poland unequivocally welcomes the restoration of territorial integrity of the Azerbaijani state, not only because it is an important and perspective partner, but also because your country embodies those principles that we all need. Poles have a very warm attitude towards Azerbaijan. By the way, I recently visited Baku. There are Polish tourists visiting Azerbaijan, business between our countries is developing, and I think anyone who visited your country once would certainly like to come back there. I think this is associated with the fact that Azerbaijan has everything that arouses sincere and emotional sympathy among Poles. Unfortunately, the contact between our countries has been below the optimum level for the last thirty years due to the overall geopolitical situation and foreign policy factors, but now I am confident that after the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan has been restored, the contact will be more intensive. Not only strategic cooperation at the state level but also true friendship will develop between Poles and Azerbaijanis.

Caliber.Az