Could defence deals follow as Italy lifts arms embargo from Saudi Arabia?
Breaking Defense

WORLD  08 June 2023 - 02:01

The Breaking Defense has published an article saying that the Italian government cited changed conditions on the ground in Yemen as its reason to lift the years-long block. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

Now that Italy has formally lifted its embargo on arms transfers to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, experts said that Riyadh could be in the market for some Italian defence platforms, especially naval systems and air defences.

“Italian shipbuilders offer a variety of naval vessels such as frigates and corvettes, which could enhance Saudi Arabia’s naval capabilities,” Mohammed Soliman, director of the Strategic Technologies and Cyber Security Program at the Middle East Institute, told Breaking Defense. “Italy also provides missile defence systems like the SAMP/T (Surface-to-Air Missile Platform/Terrain) system, safeguarding against airborne threats, and the Aster Air Defense System, protecting against ballistic missiles and [other] aerial dangers.”

The Italian government was among the first to suspend arms sales to Saudi Arabia, as well as the United Arab Emirates, in 2019 over the Gulf nations’ violent campaign in Yemen against Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Other nations, including the US (if only partially), followed suit.

But the Italian restrictions loosened since, and on May 31 the Italian government announced that since the situation on the ground had changed — including a year-long truce — the need for the embargo has gone. Italy reportedly lifted the embargo on the UAE last month.

Experts said that in the wake of the conflict’s cooling, Rome’s move may have to do with its new, right-wing government, and the simple fact that the Gulf nations are a burgeoning defence market.

The war in Yemen likely highlighted the value of cross-border missile and defence systems, as the Houthis purportedly managed to occasionally strike targets in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

“There is consistent reason to believe that Riyadh will continue prioritizing the purchase of missiles in its defence procurement. Indeed, fatigued by years of intense intercepting of Houthi air raids, the Saudi stockpiles of anti-air assets require constant replenishment to operate at full capacity in case of an abrupt resumption of hostilities,” said Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco, an independent researcher on the security affairs of the Gulf region and an analyst at Gulf State Analytics.

He added that once the dust of past Italian-Saudi frictions fully settles, Rome and Riyadh could even consider launching joint strategic partnerships in crucial defence sectors, in line with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 to localize 50 per cent of total defence spending.

“Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI) is intensely searching for top-notch foreign defence companies with the technical know-how and the willpower to support the Saudi push to develop a globally competitive domestic military-defence industrial complex,” Mazzucco explained. “In this regard, entering enhanced cooperation with some of Italy’s defence giants — primarily Fincantieri and Leonardo — could help the Saudis make significant strides in some niche defence sectors, such as aerospace, cybersecurity, and unmanned solutions.”

Even before the embargo was formally lifted, Italian firms showed up at Riyadh’s World Defense Show 2022, where they exhibited their latest systems in an attempt to catch the eye of Saudi and regional decision-makers. Leonardo, Italy’s defence giant, concentrated on cross-domain interoperability and showcased its C-27J its multi-role military transport aircraft at the static display area.

Shipbuilder Fincantieri was also there via its subsidiary IDS. David Des Roches, associate professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Security Studies, expected that ships could certainly be a focus for any future deals with Rome.

“Fincantieri is one of the global leaders in shipbuilding. And they have been in discussion with the Saudis for some time to build their advanced ships and indeed to be the lead on the recapitalization of the Royal Saudi Navy,” Des Roches said.

He added that the possibility of space-based systems and possibly anti-drone systems, as well, noting that Italian firms produce several models of these systems, all of which are promising and may be adopted.

Even if it’s hard to say exactly what happens next with Riyadh and Rome, Mazzucco said to expect warmer relations.

“The main reason underpinning Italy’s move to lift the arms sale restrictions is Rome’s resolve to restore a positive atmosphere with the Gulf states,” he said. “Indeed, the [Prime Minister Giorgia] Meloni-led government aims to mend fences with Saudi Arabia after a few years of sour diplomatic ties between Rome and Riyadh.”

Caliber.Az