Baku and its allies may face new wave of Armenian terror
Foreign experts on Caliber.Az
INTERVIEWS 02 October 2023 - 14:41
On September 28, an unprecedented event took place in the post-Soviet space, and maybe in the whole world. For the first time in history, an illegal separatist entity has declared self-liquidation. Curiously, what significance will this precedent have for other countries suffering from separatism? Can the example of Azerbaijan serve them in some way in the future? Here, of course, the matter is Moldova (Transnistria), Ukraine (Crimea, Donbas), and Georgia (Abkhazia, South Ossetia).
These questions were answered by foreign experts talking to Caliber.Az.
Moldovan-Romanian political analyst Mihai Isac said that the successful actions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces proved that it is possible to defeat separatism and restore order.
“The disbandment of ‘NKR’ [Nagorno Karabakh Republic] was closely followed not only by the constitutional authorities but also by the separatist regimes in Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Unfortunately, the path to national reintegration is more difficult for the Republic of Moldova and Georgia due to their special geography and internal political unrest.
The authorities of Baku continue to keep the issue of national reintegration at the centre of the national and international agenda, and thanks to their smart geopolitical moves, they are achieving their goals. This policy led to practical international relations, both political and military, and today no one disputes Azerbaijan's right to liberate Garabagh.
Unfortunately, in both Georgia and Moldova, the internal political situation is such that the authorities are not ready to take the same measures - mainly because of the Russian military presence in the separatist territories, but also because of internal political disagreements. Due to Russia's constant involvement in the political life of these states, it is impossible for them to form a strong consensus in their societies on how to solve this problem.
However, a military solution is impractical and constitutionally undesirable for the authorities of the Republic of Moldova and Georgia. Both countries are interested in using economic and social policies to attract people from the separatist territories. The leaders of Moldova and Georgia have always stated this,” said the Moldovan-Romanian political scientist.
According to him, Ukraine is actively involved in the defence war against Russia and the model of Garabagh liberation is widely studied by Ukrainian experts and political figures.
Ukrainian media widely covered the liberation of Garabagh and cited it as an example for Ukraine. Kyiv has been actively studying Azerbaijani military tactics and political strategy used to resolve the Garabagh issue. The way Baku has succeeded in transforming its army has also been studied by many military leaders of all major powers, and localised anti-terrorist activities are still in the textbooks. The world is now watching to see how Baku will reintegrate the territory and local populations that wish to remain under Azerbaijani jurisdiction.
Another issue of interest to many countries is the resettlement of internally displaced Azerbaijanis because Baku is applying some new political, economic and social strategies to ensure their well-being. This will help other countries in the region, especially Ukraine, reintegrate the liberated territories and the millions resettled from there.
Propaganda does certainly play a role in this, and, unfortunately, any peace proposal to the Armenians from Baku will be attacked by the war-mongering media.
Another possibility is the rise of a new wave of Armenian terrorism against Azerbaijan and its allies, very similar to what ASALA did. But let’s hope that this will not happen and peace will come to Garabagh once and for all,” Isac noted.
In his turn, former deputy minister of information policy of Ukraine, director of the Institute of Post-Information Society, and lecturer of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Dmytro Zolotukhin said that, without any doubt, this is a historical victory for Azerbaijan.
It seems to me that not many people around the world expected such an outcome when a complex geopolitical issue was resolved with apparent ease. However, let's be honest - this is just an appearance. Behind this result lies not only the determination and strength of the Azerbaijani armed forces but also the support of the people and the round-the-clock work of diplomats and intelligence services. This result is also a consequence of geopolitical decisions in which Turkish President Erdogan took a very lively and active part, whose speech at the UN General Assembly in Ukraine was listened to very carefully.
I would like to congratulate the people of Azerbaijan on the long-awaited advent of peace and wish a speedy resolution of absolutely all the problems that made life difficult for people in Garabagh," Zolotukhin said.
But, at the same time, he emphasised that the war in Ukraine has a chance to end only when appropriate geopolitical decisions are made, behind which there will be influential politicians ready to take responsibility for the course of history.
"So far, in this respect, the forecasts for the situation in Ukraine are rather pessimistic. When the same geopolitical decision is made with regard to Ukraine, and Paris's point of view on the events will be ignored just as much as the Kremlin's point of view - then not only the war in Ukraine will stop. This will simultaneously solve all the issues of Transnistria, Abkhazia and so-called South Ossetia," the Ukrainian expert summarised.
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