“Armenia’s problems no longer of interest to anyone”
Expert opinions on Caliber.Az
INTERVIEWS 02 October 2023 - 14:59
How will the internal political situation in Armenia be unfold against the backdrop of recent events? The opposition members (essentially representing the previous government - the Garabagh clan), demanding Pashinyan's resignation, did not come out to the center of Yerevan with protests on the morning of September 27. Over recent days, police have carried out mass arrests of protesters. The Republican Square in Yerevan is empty, the city has calmed down for the first time since September 19.
That is, protests in the Armenian capital over dissatisfaction with the country's authorities stopped on September 27. Although in past days, opposition members regularly blocked streets, held rallies near the government building and participated in clashes with the police that led to mass arrests.
To rephrase it, for some reason, representatives of the previous government stopped street protests. Most likely, because the most active of the demonstrators were singled out from the crowd without pity, twisted and taken into custody.
However, now a new factor is coming to light, and the situation may change dramatically again - Armenians from Garabagh have arrived in Armenia, and they are hardly in a good mood. The Armenian opposition in their face (whose leaders, we repeat, come from Garabagh) can find an army of supporters for street protests. Will Pashinyan's ruling team be able to withstand such an onslaught? That is, does the government have grass-roots support among the masses under the current circumstances?
Well-known foreign experts comment on these points for Caliber.Az.
Political analyst Kazbek Beisebayev (Kazakhstan) considered it necessary to say, first of all, that the political confrontation in Armenia took place precisely over the Garabagh problem and the various factors arising from it.
“To put it simply, the struggle took place between the so-called Garabagh clan and those who opposed it. The other day, Azerbaijan finally and irrevocably resolved the Garabagh issue. This means that within Armenia itself the Garabagh issue is moving from a real dimension to another plane. Approximately like Mount Ararat (quotes - ed), which Armenians consider theirs, but which de facto and de jure is located on Turkish territory.
To some extent, thanks to Garabagh, Armenia attracted the attention of the world community and, specifically, the world's leading players. After Azerbaijan has fully restored its territorial integrity, there is little point in raising the issue of Garabagh for the powers that be. Their confrontation is taking place in other places,” Beisebayev believes.
In addition, Yerevan has done everything to ruin relations with Russia and is now accusing it of all sins, he notes.
“And this despite the fact that Russia was the guarantor of not only Armenia’s security, but also its existence as a state. Therefore, whether there will be new protests, whether the Armenian opposition will be able to remove Prime Minister Pashinyan - all these are a purely internal matter of Armenia and the Armenians. Let’s just say that Armenia was left alone with all its problems, which are no longer of interest to others,” Beisebayev believes.
Former adviser to the Georgian president on foreign policy issues, analyst Tengiz Pkhaladze noted that the question, of course, is very complex, and probably no one can answer it unequivocally.
“The situation in Armenia is actually difficult, and I agree that it is heating up. However, it still seems to me that Pashinyan’s team withstood a very serious blow and, in principle, showed serious vigilance and rationality, and I hope that the revanchists will not be able to take power, since this will be a return to the past. I think that peace, development, and normalization of relations are in the common regional interests.
“And we just all need to understand that state sovereignty should be respected by everyone, and based on this, build relationships. If this succeeds, it will be very good, and I hope so. If Armenia can build relations with both Azerbaijan and Türkiye, then this will benefit everyone. Everyone must respect the territorial integrity of states and build their future based on these principles. Naturally, we want this future to be peaceful and bring prosperity to our countries and new generations. Again, I understand all the emotions, but we must be guided by long-term national interests, and this presupposes friendship and normal relations between peoples, which do not give our opponents a reason to organize provocations to destabilize the situation in our countries,” Pkhaladze said.
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