"I wouldn't put much faith in Yerevan's claims on peace"
    Ukrainian expert tells Caliber.Az

    INTERVIEWS  30 November 2023 - 17:54

    Vadim Mansurov

    Caliber.Az presents an interview with Ukrainian military expert, military-political observer of the Information Resistance group Oleksandr Kovalenko.

    - What is your attitude to the statement of Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan about the possibility of signing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan within 15 days? Where did Yerevan get this strange interest in speeding up the process it had delayed?

    - In addition to discussing the possibility of signing a peace treaty, statements are also being made by Armenia and states that support it, such as France and the United States, that Azerbaijan is allegedly hatching plans to invade Armenian territory. These groundless but very ambitious statements are not just an element of propaganda; they reflect Armenia's current course, which is aimed at "securing" the border with Azerbaijan and creating a kind of security buffer there. Perhaps with the help of Western peacekeeping or even military missions.

    Armenia may even have some specific agreements with its Western sponsors. That is why Yerevan goes to all lengths, including pretending to want to sign a peace treaty, as Simonyan said, but in reality, it will still drag out the process. Therefore, I would not take Yerevan's statements, especially about peace, at face value - Armenians have repeatedly made various peace-loving statements, but after a while they played the situation back. It is enough to remember how Armenia managed to delay some of its obligations under the Tripartite Statement of 10 November 2020 for as long as three years. So reliance on the decency of the Armenians should be extremely cautious. 

    - What do you expect from today's meeting of representatives of Baku and Yerevan on the conditional border?

    - I do not expect anything. There may be some minimal developments, but only to confuse people. In my opinion, Armenia is not a reliable, long-term negotiator with Azerbaijan in the future.

    - What kind of games are the US playing, accusing Azerbaijan of slowing down the peace process? First, US Assistant Secretary of State O'Brien voiced biased statements against Baku. Then Blinken calls Aliyev and asks for permission for O'Brien's visit to Azerbaijan in December. Why such complications and with what "face" will the Assistant Secretary of State come to Baku?

    - O'Brien is the toughest spokesman for Washington's position on Azerbaijan. That is, in this way, Washington is trying to force Baku to accept the toughest speaker - and I see this as both an opportunity and a threat. If Baku has a counteraction to such pressure, which, among other things, could be successfully relayed in the Western information space, it is good. Because in this space, as a rule, there is a strong Armenian lobby.

    If Azerbaijan is able to convey its position with maximum range through O'Brien's visit, his visit may be beneficial. After all, it is no secret that Washington is largely pro-Armenian. And the pro-Armenian position is the manipulation of historical facts and current reality, including on the Zangezur corridor and other issues. But Azerbaijan can seize the initiative if it uses all the tools at its disposal correctly and to its maximum advantage.

    - How do you think relations between Armenia and Russia will develop in the future? Will Armenia leave Russia, the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) and the EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union)? Will it get the desired support in the West, which Yerevan is raving about?

    - I do not think that Armenia will withdraw from the CSTO and the EAEU in any forced mode. Now it is rather determined to somehow restore its military potential, which was almost lost during the 44-day war of 2020 and later, during the 23-hour operation in Karabakh. It needs something to compensate for its losses. Russia did not fulfil Armenia's hopes and failed to help it in the Karabakh issue.

    Therefore, Yerevan is now aiming to solve this problem with the help of India and France, which are likely to improve its defence capabilities. But I think that Yerevan will not be in a hurry to withdraw from any allied associations and blocs, including the CSTO. Because Yerevan probably understands that such a step is fraught with consequences - Armenia has some kind of military support, albeit ephemeral, due to certain obligations of the member states.

    Yes, the CSTO is a stillborn organisation, which is how I feel about it, but it still has some instruments of influence. Therefore, Yerevan is now apparently choosing a consistent abstraction from Russia's interests rather than a sharp break, which Armenia may simply not be able to withstand.  

    But there can be no doubt that as soon as Armenia decides that it has been able to restore its defence capability, its withdrawal from the CSTO will be accelerated as much as possible. In the course of this process, I think Armenia will also seek certain guarantees from its new and old partners - guarantees of security and support for unpredictable events.


    Subscribe to our Telegram channel

Read also

Is new war looming on South Caucasus' doorstep as third parties try to intervene? Forecasts by Turkish expert

22 February 2024 - 16:57

Azerbaijan has strength and diplomacy to make peace with Armenia directly No need for mediators

21 February 2024 - 17:56

Azerbaijan-Afghanistan economic ties amid evolving geopolitical landscape Experts ponder prospects for expanding ties

22 February 2024 - 12:30

Ankara lays down conditions for future NATO Secretary-General Experts weigh in on success of this move

20 February 2024 - 10:40

Europe will not go to war for Armenia - politician Russian politician on Caliber.Az

19 February 2024 - 11:28

International Criminal Court not to save Armenia from Russia's wrath Foreign political analysts’ views on Caliber.Az

19 February 2024 - 13:07
Latest news

    Eiffel Tower reopens to visitors after six-day closure

    26 February 2024 - 06:02

    Unexploded World War II bomb found in a garden in England

    26 February 2024 - 03:51

    Hundreds jailed for coming to UK in small boats to claim asylum, says report

    26 February 2024 - 01:59

    More Russians die seizing Avdiivka than in entire Soviet-Afghan conflict

    Analysts' opinion

    26 February 2024 - 00:04

    Accidental ocean floor discovery solves 120-year-old mystery of coal ship disappearance

    25 February 2024 - 22:01

    President Zelenskyy insists Ukraine to win on second anniversary

    25 February 2024 - 20:00

    Shortage of oil tankers at hand as Red Sea attacks divert trade

    25 February 2024 - 18:00

    Belarusians vote in tightly controlled election amid boycott call

    25 February 2024 - 17:56

    Ukraine's top general, defence minister visit posts near frontline

    25 February 2024 - 17:46

    Turkish official blames Armenian diaspora in EU, US for hindering regional peace

    25 February 2024 - 17:34

    Pope Francis urges diplomatic solution to Ukraine war

    25 February 2024 - 17:25

    Turkish Parliament speaker highlights Zangezur corridor as vital for linking regional states to Central Asia

    25 February 2024 - 17:24

    Russia to hold presidential election soon

    25 February 2024 - 17:12

    Azerbaijani basketball players defeat Kosovo

    25 February 2024 - 16:57

    Minister: Ukraine to produce one million drones per year

    25 February 2024 - 16:44

    Parliament Speaker: Ankara prioritises launching Türkiye-Azerbaijan-Georgia mechanism

    25 February 2024 - 16:34

    Istanbul hosts conference on Khojaly genocide


    25 February 2024 - 16:30

    Under new general, Russia’s Wagner makes deeper inroads into Libya

    25 February 2024 - 16:16

    Belarusian leader to run for president in 2025

    25 February 2024 - 16:01

    Another House of Azerbaijan opens in Poland

    25 February 2024 - 15:47

    Azerbaijani gymnast wins World Cup

    25 February 2024 - 15:34

    War in Ukraine in 12 key moments

    25 February 2024 - 15:21

    More than third of Germans back sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine

    25 February 2024 - 15:05

    Israeli delegation may visit Qatar for more Gaza talks

    25 February 2024 - 14:51

    Farmers accuse President Macron of not caring about France

    25 February 2024 - 14:39

    EU top diplomat accuses Israel of using hunger as weapon in Gaza

    25 February 2024 - 14:27

    Belarus president: "CSTO won't collapse" without Armenia

    25 February 2024 - 14:24

    Palestinian infant dies of hunger amid Israeli war on Gaza

    25 February 2024 - 14:10

    US, UK bomb Houthi sites in Yemen amid surge in Red Sea ship attacks

    25 February 2024 - 13:57

    Istanbul conference urges French leader to address colonialism concerns

    From Polynesia to Antilles

    25 February 2024 - 13:45

    US accuses SpaceX of hindering Taiwan's satellite internet service

    25 February 2024 - 13:32

    IRGC: Iran believes in Gaza's victory

    25 February 2024 - 13:19

    Egypt to build two refugee camps in Gaza Strip

    25 February 2024 - 13:06

    Navalny's "tortured" body handed over to his mother

    25 February 2024 - 12:54

    IDF: Troops nab terror operatives in Gaza’s Khan Younis

    25 February 2024 - 12:40

    India expects military-industrial complex production to triple

    25 February 2024 - 12:31

    Trump pledges to "fire" Biden

    25 February 2024 - 12:23

    Elections kick off in Belarus on first-ever unified election day

    25 February 2024 - 12:09

    Air Force: Ukraine downs 16 out of 18 drones launched by Russia

    25 February 2024 - 11:55

    Türkiye commemorates Khojaly genocide victims

    With series of events/PHOTO

    25 February 2024 - 11:47

All news