“Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration put on pause”
    Nikolay Nazarov on Caliber.Az

    INTERVIEWS  08 December 2023 - 15:19

    Vadim Mansurov

    Caliber.Az interview with PhD in politics, director of the Center for Regional Security Studies (Sumy State University), Ukrainian political expert Nikolai Nazarov.

    - Serious disputes have recently flared up between Kyiv and the West about the presidential elections in Ukraine. Will it take place or not? Who do you think can compete with the current President Zelenskyy?

    - Intense debates about the West putting pressure on Ukraine, demanding to hold the next presidential elections, took place about a month ago, but now conversations have died down. This is because Ukraine, with sufficient reasoning, made it clear to the Western community that holding elections for a new president at a time when the country is under “martial law” is practically impossible.

    The president himself said this, as well as about a hundred public organizations of Ukraine, Ukrainian politicians and their parties signed a joint statement calling for the postponement of the elections. Moreover, the Verkhovna Rada has extended the “martial law” regime in the country, and we simply won’t have time to hold elections, even if that was the goal. The Ukrainian budget for 2024 is already approved, which does not provide funds for holding elections. So, we can say that the issue has been removed from the agenda.

    As for the conflict between President Zelenskyy and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny, which is actively being promoted in various media, then, of course, it is bad when such conflicts arise and become a topic of public discussion. If we talk about Zaluzhny’s political goals, we haven’t heard about it yet. And it’s not worth “sending” Zaluzhny to elections that, apparently, will not take place. Yes, Zaluzhny is popular in society. Yes, today he is the second most popular person in the country after Zelenskyy, and if we simulate the elections, we can assume that in the second round, he could even beat Zelenskyy in terms of the number of votes. But, again, I am reiterating, at the moment Zaluzhny has not declared his desire to run for president, at least officially.

    - Is Ukraine’s accession to NATO already a completely closed issue, or has it simply been shelved?

    - Indeed, it can be stated that Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration has been put on pause. First, because there is a war going on, second because NATO is not ready to make such a decision. Budapest is categorically against it, and we still don’t know the exact reaction of the United States. Here it is also worth bearing in mind the recent statement by the former Secretary General of NATO, who proposed right now to resolve the issue of Ukraine’s membership of NATO within the framework of the geography controlled by Kyiv.

    And this could give confidence to Ukraine, as well as send a clear signal to Russia that further military action is impossible. I talked about this topic with politicians and diplomats in Europe and I can say that they take this proposal seriously. Yes, it will most likely not be implemented today or tomorrow, but it is being considered in detail in European capitals.

    Here it is also worth saying that the constitution of Ukraine clearly states that NATO and EU membership is a key priority of our policy. Kyiv is not abandoning these plans, so when the situation allows, Ukraine and NATO will return to this topic and consider it in detail. At the moment, the priority topic is negotiations on membership in the European Union, which are about to begin, but we also do not forget about NATO.

    - The West has changed its priorities, as some analysts and world media say, and is now inclined to push Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow. How noticeable is this trend? Will Kyiv negotiate with Moscow?

    - Yes, the West is pushing the Ukrainian leadership to negotiate, but President Zelenskyy clearly says that negotiations with Russia are impossible until Ukrainian territories are de-occupied. There is no other point of view. It is obvious that sooner or later, any war ends in negotiations and here the parties, in principle, can even meet indirectly. I know that such a mechanism was tested, for example, on the grain deal, that is, Turkey or the UN could act as a mediator. Most likely in 2024, in one form or another, I think negotiations can begin. There is information that this could happen closer to the 2024 presidential elections in the United States, when Russia, let’s say, will be more ready for the negotiation process. In the meantime, there are such conversations, but there are no specifics and no steps on our part.

    - The United States has become more active in the South Caucasus, and an active dialogue between Washington and Yerevan is noticeable, as a result of which we are seeing a serious turn of Armenia to the West and, in fact, its boycott of the CSTO. In the public political sphere, there is a serious deterioration in relations between Moscow and Yerevan. In your opinion, how far can the crisis between Armenia and Russia go?

    - Armenia is confident that Russia has not fulfilled its mission as a peacemaker and, therefore, Russia, as the dominant state of the CSTO bloc, is no longer a guarantor of security for Armenians. Therefore, Armenia currently faces a serious dilemma with its own security. Yerevan is disappointed and is looking for other centers of power and protection. Apparently, they are the United States, and the European Union, and in the future, perhaps, some kind of European integration of Armenia will take place.

    Of course, the fact that its allies are breaking away from Russia is very positive news for the United States and the West in general. Therefore, the United States will encourage Armenia as much as possible in this direction; accordingly, these trends will affect the general geopolitical climate in the South Caucasus - it is worth taking this into account.

    - How do you assess the strengthening of the role of the Organization of Turkic States in the international arena?

    - The war between Russia and Ukraine, and sanctions against Moscow, of course, significantly changed the political and economic map of Europe and Asia. In some contexts, Russia is crossed out, in others, it is looking for options to reorient its exports from European to Asian markets. At the same time, during the restructuring of this system of connections, new opportunities arise for different countries and corporations to occupy empty niches from which Russia or its agents of influence have left, building, first of all, new supply chains. The Turkic states currently have a huge potential for development, the opportunity to integrate into this system, occupy niches, and build supply chains - primarily those that connect China with the European Union, as well as other areas.

    The SPECA summit was recently held in Baku, which I followed closely, and this summit was precisely concerned with resolving these issues. An interesting trend - in addition to the Turkic countries, Hungary, which is a member of the European Union, also took part in it, which wants to buy Azerbaijani oil and gas at better prices, implement various projects, for example, construction in Karabakh, and develop those new logistics and trade routes with countries OTS. And Azerbaijan, as I understand it, occupies one of the leading roles here. So, of course, the potential is there, and the Turkic states now need to use this window of opportunity to take better positions.


    Subscribe to our Telegram channel

Read also

"Azerbaijan-Türkiye alliance will ruin Macron's game in the Caucasus" Foreign experts on Caliber.Az

04 March 2024 - 14:29

Moldova's EU aspirations in the shadow of Transnistria Journalist from Chisinau on Caliber.Az

04 March 2024 - 11:40

Experts reflect on backfire effect of European Parliament's anti-Azerbaijani attacks Caliber.Az conversation with Ishmukhamedov, Apkhaidze

02 March 2024 - 17:17

Germany challenges France to duel over mediating role in Azerbaijan-Armenia settlement Experts ponder over FRG's negotiation initiatives

02 March 2024 - 12:43

"Armenia's goal is to provoke Azerbaijan into retaliation" Experts' views on Yerevan's insidious plans

29 February 2024 - 12:33

Current geopolitical position of Armenia created by will of its people Foreign experts on Caliber.Az

29 February 2024 - 12:42
Latest news

    How trade can help US beat China?

    04 March 2024 - 22:00

    Azerbaijan signs up to Global Methane Pledge

    04 March 2024 - 21:10

    Austrian MPs updated on prospects for Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process

    04 March 2024 - 21:05

    Egypt studies plan to expand Suez Canal

    04 March 2024 - 20:57

    More than 6 in 10 US adults doubt Biden’s mental capability

    04 March 2024 - 20:53

    Bitcoin smashes through $65,000

    04 March 2024 - 20:46

    Azerbaijan establishes Ski Journalists Club


    04 March 2024 - 20:41

    President Biden sure of victory in coming US presidential election

    04 March 2024 - 20:37

    In search of mutual trust: What can be done?

    Contemplations with Orkhan Amashov

    04 March 2024 - 20:29

    Shahbaz Sharif takes oath as 24th prime minister of Pakistan

    04 March 2024 - 20:20

    16 candidates go to run off in Tehran parl. elections

    04 March 2024 - 20:17

    Cambodian People’s Party: Azerbaijan to play even greater role in regional, global affairs

    04 March 2024 - 20:05

    Azerbaijan, Pakistan intensify military cooperation


    04 March 2024 - 20:05

    Azerbaijan, Bulgaria hail successful energy cooperation


    04 March 2024 - 19:53

    Azerbaijan to host first meeting of BSEC tourism educational institutions

    04 March 2024 - 19:41

    Lowest voter turnout in Iran's parliamentary polls stuns ruling regime

    Azerbaijanis opposing Kurds' land claims in Iran

    04 March 2024 - 19:35

    Khankendi-Baku Ultramarathon wraps up in Azerbaijan


    04 March 2024 - 19:29

    Türkiye unveils AZAT FPV kamikaze drone


    04 March 2024 - 19:21

    Turkmenistan could join Organisation of Turkic States in 2024

    04 March 2024 - 19:13

    Reuters: EU wants fossil fuel sector to help pay to combat climate change

    04 March 2024 - 19:05

    Azerbaijan, Bulgaria eying development of interstate, interparliamentary cooperation


    04 March 2024 - 18:57

    Azerbaijan, Qatar discuss current financial situation

    04 March 2024 - 18:45

    Turkish COBRA-II armoured tactical vehicles spotted in Kazakhstan


    04 March 2024 - 18:37

    Palestinian president set to visit Türkiye

    Meeting with Erdoğan scheduled

    04 March 2024 - 18:25

    Algerian president's security officers block Iranian leader's guards


    04 March 2024 - 18:13

    Turkish trainer aircraft “HÜRJET” accomplishes another test


    04 March 2024 - 18:01

    Pundit warns against overestimating Armenia's importance in regional dynamics

    04 March 2024 - 17:54

    Baku's former train station makes way for "hybrid green corridor"

    From rails to trails/VIDEO

    04 March 2024 - 17:46

    Italian warship forced to shoot down Houthi missile in Red Sea

    04 March 2024 - 17:37

    Hungarian PM: West misses opportunity to conclude peace agreement on Ukraine

    04 March 2024 - 17:29

    Expert: Europeans unwilling to die for Armenia

    04 March 2024 - 17:20

    Iran to hold second round of elections as results of first round announced

    04 March 2024 - 17:12

    Death toll in Israel’s war on Gaza rises to 30,534

    04 March 2024 - 17:03

    Azerbaijan, Iran discuss Aghband-Julfa road construction

    04 March 2024 - 16:56

    Armenia, Greece bolstering military-technical cooperation

    04 March 2024 - 16:47

    Azerbaijani Mine Action Agency defuses over 580 munitions in liberated lands

    04 March 2024 - 16:38

    Türkiye's annual inflation climbs to over 67% in February

    04 March 2024 - 16:30

    President Aliyev reaffirms Azerbaijan's commitment to boost ties with Pakistan

    04 March 2024 - 16:29

    Russian journalist proposes to attack bridges in Germany

    04 March 2024 - 16:21

    Three-year hold-up on French military aid to Ukraine and Armenia sparks doubts

    Empty promises?

    04 March 2024 - 16:13

All news