Armenia unequivocally gearing up for new war Experts on the reasons behind Yerevan's rearming

The uncomfortable but obvious fact is that despite all peace talks, Armenia is actively rearming. In particular, according to Defence Minister Papikyan, India and France are becoming Yerevan's permanent military suppliers. At the same time, Armenia's relations with NATO are actively on the rise.

What do these facts say? Is Armenia preparing for a new war? Is all the talk about peace with Azerbaijan just a way to delay the process and distract attention? Caliber.Az had a look at the answers to these questions in the opinion of foreign political analysts.

According to Russian military expert Alexei Khlopotov, Armenian policy defies rational logic. Armenia begs for punishment even though it has already been taught a lesson.

"I can't help feeling that Armenia is getting ready to fight. The outcome is foreseeable - an utter defeat of Armenia. I've said repeatedly that Pashinyan is going down one road - to make Armenia cease to exist altogether. Otherwise, Armenians will not calm down. They will achieve this goal themselves, contrary to common sense," the expert stressed.

According to him, any sane person in Armenia should understand that it does not have enough economy, military forces or population to fight Azerbaijan. These are completely different weight categories.

"So why is Armenia buying arms from France and India? I think the most likely thing is to upset Moscow and curtsy to France. And, of course, to somehow satisfy the revanchist fervour of the domestic audience. But any military campaign by Armenia is doomed to failure, to defeat. Even though Armenia may increase the volume of purchased weapons tenfold, it will not help to change the military balance," Khlopotov said.

Recently there has been talk of a regional war between Armenia and Azerbaijan involving some external forces, he notes. France, for example, would come to Armenia's aid. But this is fantasy.

"How can France directly participate in the South Caucasus conflict when it has no common borders with Armenia and Azerbaijan? Can it airlift soldiers from the Foreign Legion to the region? But this is completely ruled out because of the futility of such an idea," Khlopotov summed up.

Looking at the situation from the point of view of political and economic benefits, the opening of roads, transport links and borders between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Türkiye has been extremely beneficial for Yerevan, says Uzbek international political scientist Raphael Sattarov.

"Nobody cancelled geography. There's not a single country in the world that can prosper without having to deal with bigger neighbours, which also play an active political and economic role in the region. Pashinyan's activities in Armenia are opposed by various political groups and clans. They are and will continue to be acutely revisionist about everything he does. My general impression is that Pashinyan is not a man of war, but he has problems in the area of domestic policy. For a normal life, for prosperity, Armenia must open its communications, it must join some transit projects, but Pashinyan's ideas are opposed by other Armenian politicians, revanchists and the opposition," the political scientist said.

At the same time, he believes that the world has reached a stage where many states will be forced to invest their main resources in arming themselves.

"A lot of experts believe that the year 2024 will be more full of instability and conflicts than the previous year. I have already said in the media that the peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan will come to life if the issue of the Zangezur corridor is resolved. At the same time, there is no denying the fact that the current authorities in Yerevan are waiting for the moment when the world circumstances will change in Armenia's favour.

On the other hand, one cannot ignore the fact that there is a belief in Armenia that it is necessary to arm itself. The fact that Armenia is buying new anti-aircraft and anti-UAV systems indicates that it is preparing for some military action. In my opinion, the outbreak of military action between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be in the second half of 2024, between June and December. I think that Yerevan is now behaving in accordance with the policy of 'as luck would have it', and if the negotiations on the peace treaty have a negative outcome for Armenia, a new local military conflict is likely to break out," Sattarov said.