American approach: Russia is small beer, China is peer Shereshevskiy's analysis

The US leadership drifts toward compromise with Russia because it fears China more than anything else.

Recently, a well-known orientalist (he asked to stay anonymous) made curious remarks about the relations in the triangle of US-Russia-China. According to him, when journalists write about the politics of these three countries, they often forget that the most important factor that influences it is the asymmetry in the Moscow-Beijing pair.

China's GDP surpasses Russia's by about 10 times and has been growing steadily for the past 40 years. True, the growth has slowed down this year. It is possible that China has entered the stagnation zone. Even so, it is quite possible that its economy will grow by 2-3 per cent a year in the next decade. Russia is experiencing economic stagnation, which may well turn into a prolonged recession for the next decade (although, theoretically, slight growth is possible).

Therefore, it is China that is seen in America as the main rival. What if it turns into a super-Hong Kong, a supermassive economy that surpasses the United States, or at least is as big as the American economy? An economy that will become a centre of gravity for international investment? In this case, China will start dictating terms to the planet and threatening sanctions, as the Americans do today, using the fact that for large companies the loss of the Chinese market could be tantamount to disaster. In addition, China's military power is constantly growing, while this country has territorial disputes (related to sea and land borders) with most of its neighbours. Finally, there is the thorny Taiwan issue - Beijing considers the island its territory and is considering its return, while the US considers Taiwan its ally; the conflict could lead to an armed clash between the two nuclear powers, to a world war.

As for Russia, although the US fears its nuclear capabilities, Washington nevertheless views Moscow as a secondary opponent. As one very senior American politician put it in a conversation with an Orientalist: "For us, China is oncology, and Russia is tooth decay."

For the same reasons that the confrontation with Russia is seen as secondary in Washington, the US has de-emphasised the Middle East. They see China as a multidimensional threat, according to their strategic security concept, and intend to devote maximum resources to confronting it while weakening other areas.

Certain features of world politics also dictate this state of affairs. For example, any new government that comes to Russia in the future may find that it is not too favourable to confront the West. Russian officials and oligarchs are happy to keep their capital and buy property there since private property in the West is more tightly protected by laws and economic stability than anywhere else. In China, there is no border between private and state, so the state apparatus can confiscate any capital at any time, and it is forbidden for foreigners to buy property in this country.

Any future Russian government will have a unique opportunity to make peace with the West by turning in its direction and joining the anti-China coalition. In exchange for confrontation with its main opponent, the West will agree to lift any sanctions.

But China will not be able to get rid of economic sanctions and suspicion on the part of the West by surrendering Russia. In any case, Moscow is not seen as the main threat in the United States. Beijing is another matter. Simply because it is too powerful. So even if China surrenders Russia, it will do little or nothing for it.

For these reasons, the probability of a pro-Western turn in Russia, should a new government come to power in the future (say, in 10 or 20 years) is very high. That is why, as the Orientalist noted, Beijing does not have much faith in a long-term and lasting alliance with Moscow.

In addition to his opinion, there is another reason why China refuses to strategically increase its investments in Russia and to supply it with weapons, a reason that another major Russian Sinologist, Alexander Gabuyev, points out. China's trade turnover with the US and EU countries exceeds that with Russia almost tenfold. In addition, China is still dependent on Western technological chains and has not been able to fully overcome its scientific and technological lag behind the West (although it may solve this problem in the future). For a combination of these reasons, Beijing is very cautious about ties with Russia and does not supply it with weapons. It fears Western sanctions that could destroy its powerful export-oriented industry, which would lead to higher unemployment. Unemployment in China is already reaching a dangerous 20 per cent among young people. According to sociologists, a youth unemployment rate of 25 per cent automatically makes a country politically unstable. This could mean that China's rebellious working class will come to the fore, launching a powerful strike campaign. For all these reasons, the PRC leadership and Xi Jinping are extremely uninterested in new US sanctions. And this holds back their cooperation with Moscow.

Sharing in many respects the views of respected orientalists, we, for our part, would like to point out that the asymmetry between China and Russia also explains a lot in current world politics - above all, the West's readiness to deal not only with the future Russian government but also with the current masters of the Kremlin.

There is an anti-China consensus in Washington. So, both Democrats and Republicans would also accept the current Russian leadership if it turned against the PRC (however, this will not happen, Trump has already tried such an option, offering it to Moscow, and achieved nothing from it). Moreover, the Biden administration has often hinted that it wants to be friends with Moscow and share Ukraine with it. Republicans in general are dominated by pro-Russian candidates - Trump and Ramaswamy. The reason is not that they are all KGB agents, as some originalists think, but that for the US the main enemy is not Russia, but China because of its enormous economic and military power. This is business, nothing personal. It's just that the West doesn't care about Russia. It would like to quickly close the issues with Ukraine, as well as with the Middle East, and deal with China.