Armenia's hopes of imposing French sanctions against Azerbaijan turn to ashes Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

French Parliament Speaker Yaël Braun-Pivet's visit to Yerevan turned into a not-so-pleasant surprise for the Armenian political class. "Paris will not recognise Karabakh's 'independence' under international law, to which France is subject," Braun-Pivet stated at a joint press conference with the speaker of the Armenian parliament, Alain Simonyan. "It is not for France to decide what status Nagorno-Karabakh may have in the region," said the Speaker of the French National Assembly.

Besides, the President of the French Parliament also answered the question of Armenian journalists on the possibility of imposing sanctions against Baku by Paris.

"Today we believe that the most important thing is the peaceful resolution and restoration of dialogue, and all our efforts are directed to this. We believe that it is inexpedient to use other ways until the path of possible peace and dialogue is exhausted until we have tried everything in this regard. Our energy is 100 per cent directed towards this settlement," Yaël Braun-Pivet said.

In fact, everything she said is a direct admission that, in a practical sense, on the ground, Armenia has nothing to count on France. Paris cannot find reasons to condemn Baku for carrying out certain actions on its sovereign territory and cannot impose sanctions against Azerbaijan on this basis. And in the same way, with an eye on the rest of the world, France is unable to recognise part of Azerbaijan as an "independent state".

Will this speech by the speaker of the French parliament at least throw cold water at a significant part of Armenians still living in the clutches of revanchist illusions? Can this unambiguous acknowledgment from a man representing the leadership of Armenia's main patron country make the political elites in Yerevan understand that there is no other way for their state to exist but to recognise Karabakh as an indivisible part of Azerbaijan and renounce any territorial claims against Türkiye? That it is time to move on to concrete negotiations with Baku and Ankara without looking back at anyone else. Or will this Yaël Braun-Pivet's lesson be in vain for Armenians?

Renowned foreign experts have shared their views on the situation with Caliber.Az.

German political scientist and former Bundestag deputy Waldemar Herdt noted that the Armenian leadership has made a wrong choice, betting on Western European politics.

"I once gave an interview to Armenian TV and asked them to name a single country to which Western assistance has brought peace. Or at least one conflict that was stopped by the intervention of Western forces. Unfortunately, the lessons of history do not teach the Armenian leadership anything, and this is very sad. I do not want Pashinyan to repeat others' mistakes, but he has been following this path for the past three years, and he is not leading his country toward prosperity. No ambition is worth even one person's life, and therefore it is necessary to sit down at the negotiating table and resolve issues with Azerbaijan without involving those forces that are not interested in solving this situation. This is a false and incorrect approach to the problem.

And thank God that the French politician did not make any illusory promises, which would have encouraged the Armenian leadership to take some ill-considered steps. I hope this will cool their heads a little bit and give them an opportunity to resolve the conflict diplomatically," Herdt said.

Askar Dzhakishev, a political expert, Ph.D. in history, and professor at the Kyrgyz-Russian Slavonic University in Bishkek, said the sympathy of France is definitely on Armenia's side.

"France has a large and influential Armenian diaspora. The question of how and for whom they will vote in the next elections is always on the agenda of political parties in France. However, the events in Ukraine, the EU, and US sanctions against Russia and Russia's tit-for-tat sanctions are forcing France to adjust its foreign policy. The inability to obtain energy, rare earth metals, and fuel for its nuclear power plants directly from Russia has forced it to look for alternative sources. Everyone is aware of France's foreign policy failure in Australia.

In the current situation, with France in dire need of energy resources and Baku's oil becoming an alternative to Russian oil in the distant future, Baku becomes a more interesting partner than Yerevan. The Russian displacement of France from the French-speaking states, former French colonies rich in natural resources, has put France in a very difficult position. In the current situation, France, in its diplomatic moves to protect Yerevan's interests, will do so with an eye on Baku," Dzhakishev believes.

Gela Vasadze, a leading expert at the Georgian Strategic Analysis Center (GSAC), strongly doubts that any Armenian political class ever hoped that France would recognise Karabakh as an "independent state".

"By the way, Armenia does not recognise Karabakh as such either. The question of the Armenian journalist was somewhat, to put mildly, strange. But the answer was quite predictable.

In practical terms, if we mean the military force on the ground, France is not going to help Armenia. However, it is thanks to the efforts of France that Armenia is likely to get a European observer mission. France undoubtedly will continue to support Armenia. The Yerevan authorities are now seeking a security transition, not a change in foreign policy. Otherwise, the peace agreement would have been signed long ago," says Vasadze.

Stanislav Tkachenko, a Russian political scientist and professor at St. Petersburg State University, believes that the French National Assembly delegation represented at a very high level during its visit to Yerevan on January 12-13, 2023, solved tasks of a purely political nature.

"The speaker of the lower house of the French parliament, Yaël Braun-Pivet, who led the delegation, uttered key words about the unblocking of the Lachin corridor (the Lachin road - Ed.) and the desirability of sending an EU civilian mission to the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. She confirmed that the French legislative branch of government is the most loyal to Yerevan's interests in the conflict between the two South Caucasus states.

France has an effective system of separation of powers, so the real influence of parliament on the country's foreign policy is limited and is significantly inferior to that of the president and the government of the country. This peculiar 'diplomatic irresponsibility' partly contributes to the radicality of the parliamentarians' statements and assessments. It is all the more important to note what Yaël Braun-Pivet did not say during her two-day visit to Yerevan: she did not mention the issue of Karabakh's special status and Paris' readiness to apply economic and other pressure on Baku to refuse measures forcing it to open Zangazur corridor and sign a peace treaty with fixing the state border", said the professor.

For the last decades, Paris has adopted a position on the international scene which may be conventionally called "status quo preference". From the French point of view, the processes in Europe at the beginning of this century were moving in the right direction, so any radical changes were to be avoided or minimised. The reference case for France in this respect is the Kosovo conflict, in which the parties renounced the use of military force as long ago as 1999, although they have moved their armies and held occasional military drills along the borders. France has therefore maintained the status quo in the South Caucasus for nearly three decades, de facto approving the occupation of seven Azerbaijani districts and Yerevan's unilateral actions to determine Karabakh's status, Tkachenko said.

"For Paris, Azerbaijan's military resolution of the Karabakh problem in the autumn of 2020 was a challenge to the existing European system. Diplomats and members of the French government responsible for the fate of their country have already come to terms with the new reality, in which not only the diplomatic word but also military force are factors in foreign policy. And lawmakers in Paris are somewhat lagging in the process. But the visit by a high-ranking delegation from the National Assembly showed that momentous changes towards a peaceful resolution of the Karabakh problem are beginning here too," Tkachenko concluded.