Armenia's shift in strategic orientation risks conflict with Russia, expert warns

Armenia's current government appears determined to change the country’s strategic orientation, despite the significant "costs and risks" involved, according to Arman Grigoryan, an associate professor at Lehigh University, Pennsylvania.

Commenting on Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien’s recent statement about Armenia, Grigoryan observed, "Unfortunately, there is a government in Armenia that seems intent on changing the country's strategic orientation without much regard for the consequences. And unfortunately, some US officials like O'Brien seem intent on exploiting that opportunity," Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

Grigoryan emphasized that Russia has made it clear since 2008 that it will strongly oppose Western influence in former Soviet territories, even at the risk of military confrontation.

"It has shown a willingness not just to use force to prevent such attempts, it has shown a willingness to risk nuclear escalation to thwart such attempts," he noted, drawing parallels with Russia's actions in Georgia and Ukraine.

In a July 30 hearing before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, O'Brien acknowledged Washington's efforts to weaken Armenia's dependence on Russia, further fueling tensions between Yerevan and Moscow. Grigoryan criticized this approach, stating, "Applying this logic to Armenia means 'it doesn't cost us much, Ukrainian soldiers have to die.' That's what it is."

Meanwhile, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitri Peskov reaffirmed Moscow's view of Armenia as a friendly nation, expressing hope that Yerevan would not follow the path taken by Ukraine. Peskov reiterated Russia’s commitment to maintaining strong relations with Armenia.