Armenia should make up its mind: European Union or Eurasian Economic Union Grasp all, lose all

EU Spokesperson for foreign affairs and security policy Peter Stano said on March 15 that Armenia may apply to join the European Union. "Countries have the right to strive for a better future for their people. They are free to decide how to secure that future. As for EU membership, each European country - its people and government - should decide whether they want to apply for EU membership," the European diplomat told Izvestia in response to newspaper’s question whether the "EU doors are open for Armenia".

The representative of the EU foreign policy service reminded that as soon as a country applies for EU membership, it is considered by the member states and then they make a decision "based on the EU treaties and established criteria".

On March 13, the European Parliament (EP) adopted a resolution calling on to consider the possibility of granting Armenia candidate status in the European Union.

The next day, on March 14, commenting on the EP resolution during a session of the Armenian government, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called it another reason to discuss the future of the country. According to him, the country's government is "full of determination and will to deepen relations with the European Union". The Prime Minister pointed out that the EP resolution should be the subject of broad public discussions in Armenia.

Addressing a March 12 press conference in Yerevan, Pashinyan said that the question of whether the country will be a member of the EU or the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) can be resolved only through a referendum.  "The EU or the EAEU are issues equal to the adoption of a new constitution. The authorities can have their own idea, but the decision should be made by the people. Such issues can be solved only by referendum, there is no other option. In this situation, we are considering different scenarios. And when we have a ready proposal for the society, we will present it," the prime minister said.

According to him, this choice depends on many components, as this issue is not in a vacuum and depends on many factors. For example, Armenia's relations with Iran, which are very important and of strategic importance for Yerevan, as well as relations with Georgia, Russia, Azerbaijan, Türkiye and other countries.

Recently, the Armenian authorities have started actively discussing Armenia's "European aspirations," pointing out that Yerevan is ready to get closer to the European Union "as close as Brussels wishes. At the same time, sensible experts draw attention to the fact that if the country moves towards EU membership, its stay in the Eurasian Economic Union will be called into question, since it is not possible to combine membership in both integration associations.

The situation is really contradictory with these quite different organizations. And how high are Armenia's chances of obtaining the status of a candidate country for EU membership, given its current political and economic situation and the level of development of this country?

Foreign experts responded to these questions from Caliber.Az.

Tengiz Pkhaladze, former advisor-foreign relations secretary to the President of Georgia, analyst, noted that no one is probably able to answer these questions accurately today.

"Indeed, it is impossible for a country to strive for EU membership and simultaneously be in the Eurasian Economic Union - these are mutually exclusive things. Naturally, the current state of Armenia requires very large-scale reforms in the economy and other sectors. And the decision on granting the status of EU candidate to this or that state is based on the success of the country - to what extent it demonstrates its commitment and fidelity to the European ideals. This is the first thing that should be reflected in the governance of the country, in local self-government, in the economy, in judicial management, etc., etc. That is why I am talking about comprehensive reforms," the expert said.

And the second is a decision that requires the consensus of all (I emphasize - all) EU states, he noted.

"Therefore, today it is very difficult to say what Europe's decision will be in the case of Armenia's candidacy application. Yes, the European Parliament has adopted a relevant resolution, but this can only be considered a recommendation for the European Commission, not something binding.

However, the first thing to be done in this regard is that first of all, Armenia itself should decide in which direction it sees its further development and movement. Because, I repeat, it is impossible to remain in the EAEU and at the same time strive for membership in the EU. That is, first of all, Armenia must make this existential choice. And it should be a decision not only of the government - the public should also support this choice. Only after that it will be possible to seriously discuss this topic," Pkhaladze added.

As noted by Konrad Zasztowt, Polish political scientist, a PhD at the Faculty of Oriental Studies at the University of Warsaw, in 2013 Armenia was interested in rapprochement with the European Union and signing an Association Agreement and the Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with it.

"These agreements were not signed then because Russia forced Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan to abandon these plans. Then Moscow threatened not to support Armenia in the Karabakh conflict. Now, after Azerbaijan has regained its territorial integrity and Armenians have lost Karabakh, Putin's 2013 arguments have lost their meaning. Therefore, Armenia will seek rapprochement with the EU and in the long-term membership," the Warsaw-based analyst said.

“Its path is still longer than that of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, which signed association agreements in 2014, and at this point they already have candidate status for EU membership,” he noted.

"But if Armenia's conflict issues with its neighbors are resolved and its stable, democratic development continues, it has a chance to catch up with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The membership of all these countries has not been determined, it is unknown how many years the integration process will last, but it cannot be ruled out that it will be successful," Zasztowt concluded.