Armenian officials in Korea, tense situation in Ukraine and encirclement of Israel Weekly review by Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of "Sobitiya" (Events) show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev, covering top news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries.

Azerbaijan - Armenia

The recent week has been marked by Armenia’s contradictory statements regarding the peace process. During a joint press conference with his Luxembourg counterpart, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan almost suggested that the sides were prepared to sign a peace agreement based solely on the agreed-upon points.

He then stated that "the issue of creating a corridor and transferring its control to a third party is not up for discussion." He also mentioned some peculiar details, claiming that only the option of involving representatives from a private company licensed in both countries was considered. These representatives would, for example, accompany cargo or passenger trains to enhance the sense of security for citizens in case of the reopening of railway infrastructure.

Following his minister's lead, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan took the stage. In his address at the "Yerevan Dialogue" forum, he reiterated, this time as a call to action, the possibility of concluding a peace agreement based solely on the points that have been agreed upon. Pashinyan also revisited the issue of alleged territorial claims against Armenia supposedly contained in Azerbaijan's constitution. Additionally, he displayed a distorted understanding of the issue regarding control over the Zangezur corridor. Finally, he once again raised the issue of alleged ethnic cleansing against Armenians in Azerbaijan and the return of so-called "prisoners of war," which he equates with war criminals and members of the separatist junta.

Spokesman for the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry Aykhan Hajizada provided comprehensive comments on these statements through a series of statements and interviews. We will not delve into all the details of these comments—these points are well-known and have been articulated by Baku multiple times. However, we would like to highlight the aspect related to Armenian statements regarding the Zangezur corridor.

"Regarding the idea of involving a foreign private company in the process within both countries, it's important to note that Azerbaijan has never discussed bringing a third party into the process on its own territory. If the Armenian side is genuinely interested in opening routes in the region, it must fulfill its commitments," Hajizada stated.

Thus, Baku has demonstrated that it has no intention of disregarding the issue of the corridor. Baku has repeatedly emphasised that the terms of Clause 9 of the trilateral statement must be adhered to. 

Hajizada also pointed out that Armenia's call, while continuing its territorial claims against Azerbaijan and seeking to revive the Minsk Group—a relic of the previous conflict—to sign a peace agreement in any form and narrow its scope, raises many questions about the true intentions of the country. Meanwhile, the recent shelling, which has occurred several times over the week, targeting Azerbaijani army positions in the direction of Nakhchivan show the true intentions of the country. The topic of Armenia’s militarisation has taken an unexpected turn, notably in East Asia.

Armenian Defence Minister Suren Papikyan visited South Korea, while earlier, on September 6, Armenia's Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan was in Seoul, where he held several meetings. According to official information, during his visit, Papikyan participated in the opening ceremony of the "Responsible Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain" summit on September 9. However, this event is merely a surface-level aspect of Papikyan's visit to South Korea.

According to reliable sources’ information obtained by Caliber.Az, negotiations in Seoul led to an agreement on the supply of South Korean weapons to Armenia. Specifically, discussions included the potential purchase of tanks. The list of countries willing to arm Armenia appears to be expanding, with Japan potentially joining. According to Caliber.Az information, an Armenian delegation has been recently in Japan, where it reportedly engaged in negotiations for the purchase of weapons. Caliber.Az reached out to the embassies of South Korea and Japan in Azerbaijan for comments.

The Japanese embassy has already responded, confirming Armen Grigoryan's visit to Tokyo but denying any discussions regarding arms supplies from Japan to Armenia. So why did Grigoryan, associated with security rather than economics or technology, visit Japan?

Despite the close partnership ties among Azerbaijan, South Korea, and Japan, this development is not entirely surprising. It is well-known that these countries are key allies of the United States, and thus, are often prepared to follow Washington's directives. However, it is also possible that the US is using the militarisation of Armenia as a pretext to test the loyalty of its Asian allies.

Ukraine – Russia 

Intense fighting continues around Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region. Meanwhile, reports indicate that the Russian military is making efforts to reclaim territories in the Kursk region that were previously captured by Ukrainian forces.   However, there is growing talk among experts about the prospect of imminent negotiations. This is evident from the number of countries expressing their willingness to act as mediators, ranging from Qatar to Germany. The latter, through Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has also proposed a new peace plan.

In this context, each side is striving to secure better positions both on the front lines and in the psychological war. For instance, Sergey Karaganov, a prominent advocate of active nuclear policy in Russia, has once again emphasised the need for the potential use of nuclear weapons. During the reporting period, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Kyiv. Simultaneously, media outlets began circulating a report from The Guardian stating that the UK had granted Kyiv permission to use Storm Shadow missiles against Russian territory.   The newspaper reports that this information will not be officially disclosed. A day before his visit to Kyiv, Blinken echoed President Biden's statement that Washington "does not rule out" granting Kyiv permission to carry out missile strikes on Russian territory using ATACMS missiles.

In other words, the Americans and the British seem to be signaling to Moscow that they are on the verge of such a decision. This could be interpreted as an attempt to pressure the Kremlin into being more accommodating. However, the Kremlin believes that Washington and London have already made their decision and are now conducting an information campaign, as Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov put it, "to formalise a decision that has already been made." Whether this is the case or if Peskov’s comments are simply another aspect of the information war, we will find out in the near future. 

Middle East

The deal for the release of hostages between Israel and Hamas has once again fallen through. Meanwhile, as the intensity of operations in the Gaza Strip decreases, Israel is increasingly focusing on its northern borders. Israeli forces are targeting warehouses and rocket production sites of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant stated, "We are finishing up in the south and starting in the north." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu added that he has ordered a shift in the situation with Hezbollah.

Israeli journalists are reporting that Iran is transporting thousands of Houthi fighters from Yemen to Syria. Additionally, there is concern in Israel over news that the US and Iraq have agreed on a plan for the withdrawal of international coalition forces. According to this plan, "hundreds" of servicemen will leave Iraq by September 2025, with the remaining forces expected to withdraw by the end of 2026. Israelis believe that the withdrawal of US troops will transform Iraq into a de facto ally of Iran and bring the Iranian military geographically closer to Israel's borders.

According to reports from some opposition Syrian sources, Iran is also arming Jordan to destabilise the country and create tension along the Israeli-Jordanian border. So, with no deal in place, hostages still in captivity, Israel preparing for a ground operation against Hezbollah, and Iran seemingly pursuing a strategy of slowly encircling Israel, lasting peace in the Middle East remains elusive for the foreseeable future.  

US 

Television debates were held between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the US. Post-debate polls indicate that viewers are giving the victory to Harris, with even conservative commentators acknowledging that she appeared more convincing than Trump. In turn, Trump, despite the opinions of some of his own party members, claimed that these were his best debates and that there would be no more.

Overall, observers noted a lackluster tone in the debates, with both presidential candidates focusing more on criticising each other than on discussing their own political platforms. The most memorable moment from the debates, which has already become a meme, was Trump’s statement that immigrants in Ohio eat their pets. Meanwhile, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro weighed in with a curious verdict, saying that the US presidential debates highlighted the decline of American elites.