Bloomberg perspective: NATO must step up to Russia’s air incursions

A recent Bloomberg opinion piece warns that Russia’s repeated airspace violations over NATO member states are not mere accidents, but deliberate provocations that demand a coordinated, robust response. Referencing Ian Fleming’s famous line in Goldfinger — “Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, the third time it’s enemy action” — the article argues that Moscow’s multiple incursions this month into Polish, Romanian, and Estonian airspace constitute clear acts of aggression. NATO has already convened Article IV consultations, signaling concern for territorial integrity, but the next escalation could trigger Article V, requiring a collective military response.

The piece stresses the alliance’s current strengths and weaknesses. While NATO possesses far larger air forces than Russia, these assets are geographically dispersed across the Atlantic and span multiple nations, each with its own equipment, language, and operational culture. In contrast, Russia operates a unified, centralized air command with integrated forces. The author emphasizes that coordination is crucial, citing NATO’s Allied Air Command (AIRCOM) at Ramstein Air Base as the hub for command, control, missile defense, and air operations. General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s current military commander, is highlighted as a capable leader with extensive combat experience who could orchestrate a decisive response.

Existing measures, such as NATO Air Policing, radar monitoring, and quick-reaction fighter deployments, have effectively escorted intruding aircraft out of alliance airspace. However, the opinion argues that repeated Russian incursions suggest Moscow seeks to gain intelligence, reduce allied air protection for Ukraine, and sow discord within NATO. Simply escorting intruders is insufficient; a stronger, proactive strategy is required.

Several potential measures are outlined. First, continuous airborne early warning via US-made E-3 AWACS would provide persistent surveillance over the eastern flank, detecting low-flying drones and fighter jets that ground radars might miss. Second, the alliance could bolster quick-reaction forces with advanced fighters such as the F-35 Lightning, Swedish Gripens, Eurofighter Typhoons, and other American jets, leveraging NATO’s 3,000-plus aircraft to maintain sustained combat air patrols. Third, NATO should integrate lessons from Ukraine in countering drones, using kinetic measures, electronic jamming, and offensive cyber capabilities to disrupt Russian unmanned aircraft operations.

Finally, the piece stresses the need for a clear escalation signal to Moscow: NATO must tighten rules of engagement and reserve the right to shoot down both drones and manned aircraft if violations continue. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s warning to Russia exemplifies the resolve required. The article concludes that incremental responses are insufficient; the alliance should prepare for a full military response to airspace violations, laying the groundwork for broader measures, including a potential no-fly zone over Ukraine.

By Vugar Khalilov