Britain is increasingly defenceless – and Putin knows it

The Telegraph has published an article claiming that the failed Trident launch severely undermined the credibility of nuclear deterrent – and the Kremlin will take full advantage. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

The news that the most recent test firing of Britain’s Trident nuclear deterrent failed is cause for grave concern, particularly given that the last test conducted in 2016 also resulted in failure.

The threat of a nuclear exchange with Russia has never been higher, even at the very height of the Cold War. Only on February 18, Putin’s deranged “attack dog” and former Prime Minister of Russia Dmitry Medvedev threatened to flatten London with nuclear retaliation if Moscow was forced to withdraw its forces to its 1991 borders.

Given their crucial role in deterring Putin, any question hanging over the reliability of the Trident system is deeply disturbing. Their effectiveness in restraining Russian aggression relies on the perception that they will work, and will inflict a terrible cost on the country if it dares to enter a direct conflict with the West. If the Kremlin comes to believe that Trident is ineffective, it may become significantly more aggressive.

The Vanguard class submarines carrying Britain’s “continuous at sea” nuclear deterrent carry 8 Trident missiles each, alongside up to 40 thermonuclear warheads. These are thought to yield around 100 kilotons – five times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Nagasaki. With each missile able to deliver multiple warheads, just one would be ample to flatten the Kremlin and everything around it.

We can be confident that not every missile launched would fail. Conducting tests with inert weapons can be challenging; the expense to make a dummy weapon act like the real thing can be prohibitive and the technical elements challenging, resulting in “anomalies”. Reassuringly, the US successfully tested this missile in October last year.

But still, we must remember that with the Russian hordes steaming across Eastern Europe and the US looking to distance itself from Ukraine, it is the British and French nuclear weapons which will stall them at Nato’s borders. After all, it is highly likely that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine had it retained access to nuclear weapons.

The greatest risk, however, is less that Russia will immediately attack the West, but that it will use our fading deterrent to deliver victory in Ukraine. Putin will ruthlessly exploit any weakness he sees, and if he thinks for even a moment that the UK was either unwilling or incapable of deploying its nuclear weapons, he may well escalate to the use of tactical weapons to drive back the Ukrainian armed forces.

This, in part, is why information about failures of critical deterrent systems should not be in the public domain. Revelations about nuclear capabilities can be destabilising, dangerous, and strategically disastrous, and the Ministry of Defence and the Cabinet Office must tighten the bolts to ensure they cease. The media must also do its part. It is one thing holding politicians to account and quite another to affect the security of the country. 

It is also disappointing that people put up by the Government to speak on its behalf have little understanding of this complex issue, causing confusion rather than clarity. This goes to the nub of the issue of whether our politicians from across all parties are giving the full credence to defence that they should. It is the first duty of Parliament to protect this Nation, and I see no party in the run up to the general election leading on defence.

This must be a wake up call. Now is not the time to take any risks with our defence capabilities. On the contrary, we need to reinvest, reequip and rearm in order to provide a credible deterrent. If we can’t defend our country with nuclear and conventional weapons, then everything else vexing us could become horrifically irrelevant in a heartbeat. If Putin decides that Trident is a dud, and we do not ensure Ukraine prevails, we may find ourselves attempting to fend off a Russian invasion of the Baltics with the few tanks we still have.

Our politicians must make it clear across all parties that Britain will invest in its defence, will remain a credible actor, and will stand against Russia to the last. Anything else risks utter catastrophe.