China faces pressure to mitigate destabilising effects of allies

In an article published by The Atlantic, as global tensions rise and autocratic regimes seek to bolster their influence, China's position in the shifting geopolitical landscape has become increasingly complex.

The news that North Korean troops have been gathering in Russia to potentially assist President Vladimir Putin in his aggressive invasion of Ukraine has heightened Western concerns about autocratic regimes forming alliances to challenge democratic interests.

While there is a coalition of authoritarian states, it remains fragile and hinges on China's tolerance for instability. The war in Ukraine has highlighted cooperation among four nations—Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea—that share a mutual disdain for the United States and the international order it upholds. Since launching its invasion in 2022, Russia has procured drones and missiles from Iran. In October, the US imposed sanctions on Chinese companies collaborating with Russian firms to produce drones.

American officials indicate that China has also been supplying essential components to bolster Russia's military efforts. Now, North Korean troops are reportedly preparing to join the invading forces in Russia, raising alarms. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin noted that their involvement would represent a "very, very serious issue" with potential repercussions for both Europe and Asia. However, this collaboration conceals significant rifts among these major autocracies.

Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran do not share a unified strategy for countering American dominance. Putin has embarked on an expansionist war, while North Korea and Iran, being impoverished and largely isolated from the West, have little to lose and could gain materially by supporting Russia.

In contrast, China's position is more complex; its ambitions to reshape the global order are tempered by its dependence on that same order. The Chinese economy relies heavily on the US and its allies, making the risk of severe sanctions for supplying arms to Putin a significant concern. Faced with these conflicting interests, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has adopted a generally cautious stance toward his global ambitions. 

He appears to seek a balance of global stability to safeguard the Chinese economy while gradually increasing China's influence. Concurrently, he has strengthened ties with Russia and Iran, despite their leaders creating turmoil in Europe and the Middle East. Washington has been urging Beijing to take action and limit North Korea's collaboration with Russia, but Xi has shown little inclination to use his influence to rein in these autocratic allies. Notably, he met with Putin just a day before the Biden administration disclosed the presence of North Korean troops in Russia. 

The details of their conversation remain unclear, but the troops are still there. It can be argued that China is not only permitting this disruption but is also indirectly financing it. US sanctions against Russia, Iran, and North Korea have forced these countries to rely heavily on China. Trade between China and Russia hit a record $240 billion last year, and Russian businesses are increasingly turning to the yuan as a substitute for the US dollar. 

By Naila Huseynova