Fraudulent science threatens astronomy, space research, report warns

Astronomy and space sciences have long been considered relatively immune to the scourge of paper mills and predatory journals that have undermined other fields of research. But a new report warns that this may soon change, potentially jeopardising the credibility of the scientific record in these disciplines.

“Because space is a huge economic priority and many countries are doubling down on space research, I would expect to see the fraudulent publishing industry expand into this area,” said Reese Richardson of Northwestern University, lead author of the report, in an interview with Space.com.

The study highlights how organised criminal networks exploit the academic publishing system for profit, often outpacing legitimate scholarly output. If left unchecked, such fraud could “forever pollute a wealth of scientific literature” and contaminate datasets that future artificial intelligence (AI) models depend on for training.

How paper mills operate

Academic careers are often assessed by counting publications, citations, and authorship positions. This metric-driven system opens the door to manipulation. Paper mills — companies that sell fake or low-quality scientific articles — capitalise on this by producing fabricated studies, plagiarised work, or trivial findings packaged as research.

They may charge hundreds or thousands of dollars for authorship slots, while also offering fraudulent peer review to ensure acceptance in predatory journals. In some cases, criminal organisations even hijack dormant legitimate journals by acquiring their domain names. The report cites the example of HIV Nursing, a British journal that had ceased publication but was reactivated by fraudsters to publish irrelevant and fabricated papers.

Richardson notes that “paper mills tend to prefer topics that are more easily exploitable,” with suspected high activity in materials science, medical sciences, and engineering.

Renewable energy, particularly solar panel technology, has been heavily targeted. Richardson’s analysis uncovered repeated graph patterns — sometimes identical curves — across multiple papers, undermining genuine advances in climate-relevant technologies.

Why space science has been spared — so far

According to Richardson, “Space and astronomy research is one of the areas where not a lot of paper mill activity has been detected.” This may be because investigators seeking fraudulent papers tend to work in the most affected fields, leaving them unfamiliar with astronomy-specific red flags. It is also possible that space research has been less attractive to fraudsters because it is harder to monetise.

However, that may be changing. In developing countries where paper mills thrive, the space industry is beginning to grow. Such expansion could draw criminal groups into astronomy and space science publishing.

“If there is significant paper mill activity in space and astronomical research, then it’s possible that it just hasn’t really been detected,” Richardson cautioned.

The report warns of a looming AI-driven feedback loop. As AI tools become more capable, paper mills can use them to produce fake papers faster. If these fraudulent studies go undetected, they will be incorporated into scientific databases, contaminating the training data for future AI systems.

That could have far-reaching consequences. AI informed by fabricated data might generate flawed results in climate modeling, medical research, or astrophysical simulations — problems that extend far beyond academic publishing.

The authors urge systemic reforms: tighter editorial controls, more sophisticated methods for detecting fake papers, and, most importantly, a rethink of how scientific careers are evaluated. The current publish-or-perish culture, they argue, fuels demand for paper mill services.

“At some point it will be too late and scientific literature will become completely poisoned,” warned Luís Amaral, a co-author of the report and fellow Northwestern University researcher. “We need to be aware of the seriousness of this problem and take measures to address it.”

The threat is both immediate and global. If the infiltration of fraudulent science into space research accelerates, the long-standing trust in astronomical literature could erode, with consequences for research integrity and the reliability of future discoveries. The report’s message is clear: the scientific community must act now to safeguard the credibility of its work — before the line between fact and fabrication becomes impossible to draw.

By Sabina Mammadli