CNN: Analysts predict tougher Trump stance for Netanyahu amid regional conflicts

The potential for a shift in Middle East policy is high following the election of Donald Trump as US President, experts say. 

They projected that both the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as Israel's role in the region, will be key topics on his agenda, Caliber.Az reports, citing CNN.

In addition, analysts predict that Netanyahu will face a much tougher president in the person of Trump than in previous terms.

Mustafa Barghouti, leader of the Palestinian National Initiative, remarked that Trump is unlikely to tolerate the ongoing wars in the manner they are currently unfolding. He emphasized, however, that for Palestinians, the change in administration may not significantly alter their position, as both Trump’s and Biden’s administrations have been seen as heavily biased in favour of Israel.

Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat, suggested that Trump would want these wars "wrapped up" quickly and could press for a quick resolution, perhaps through mediators, asking Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to "announce victory" in the conflicts. Trump has avoided specifying how he would handle the Israel-Hamas war, although in April, he did call for Israel to finish the conflict swiftly, arguing that it was losing the "PR war" due to the images coming from Gaza.

While Trump's indifference to the Palestinian cause is well documented—he previously abandoned the US's longstanding support for an independent Palestinian state—there are concerns about the potential for further Israeli annexation of parts of the West Bank, a move that could end any hopes for a two-state solution. Trump's first term saw several actions favourable to Israel, including recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and endorsing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which had been captured from Syria in 1967.

Despite his record of supporting Israel, relations between Netanyahu and Trump have not always been smooth. Trump criticized Netanyahu after the 2020 US election for congratulating Joe Biden on his victory and accused the Israeli government of being unprepared for the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel.

Nevertheless, Trump’s re-election is viewed as an opportunity to further the Abraham Accords—a series of agreements brokered by Trump’s administration that normalised Israel’s relations with several Arab nations. Boaz Bismuth, a member of Israel's Knesset, argued that Trump’s presidency could pave the way for a new era in the Middle East, once the ongoing conflicts come to an end.

From a domestic perspective, Netanyahu’s position may be strengthened by Trump’s victory. His recent firing of Defence Minister Yoav Gallant over domestic political disagreements signals a new, potentially more unpredictable strategy, which could see Israel refocusing efforts on Iran once the wars in Gaza and Lebanon have concluded. Political strategist Nadav Shtrauchler pointed out that Trump's unpredictability may push Israel to act more decisively on regional issues.

By Aghakazim Guliyev