ISW questions Russia’s commitment to Trump’s peace negotiation deadline

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) expressed skepticism regarding Russia’s willingness to meet the new August 9 deadline set by US President Donald Trump for peace negotiations over the war in Ukraine.

Despite Trump’s public ultimatum and frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reluctance to engage, ISW analysts highlight significant obstacles that make a timely resolution unlikely, Caliber.Az reports via the report. 

According to ISW, the Kremlin remains firmly committed to its war objectives, including preventing Ukraine’s NATO membership and securing recognition of Russia’s annexation of occupied Ukrainian territories. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s recent statements reaffirm these demands, underscoring Moscow’s inflexible stance.

ISW points out that Russia’s extensive efforts to cultivate strong domestic support for the conflict—especially among the youth—make it politically difficult for Putin to accept any peace agreement falling short of these goals. Public opinion polls indicate most Russians favour continuing the war until aims such as “denazification,” demilitarization, and Ukrainian neutrality are achieved.

This widespread domestic support poses a significant challenge for Putin to accept any peace deal that falls short of his objectives, as doing so could undermine his political standing and the justification for the military campaign. Analysts suggest that Putin is unlikely to make concessions unless faced with substantial Ukrainian battlefield victories.

By Sabina Mammadli