Israel’s war on terror: Hard-won security amid endless conflict

A recent Foreign Affairs article paints a vivid and sobering picture of Israel’s precarious position amid a Middle East in upheaval, illustrating how the Jewish state’s intense military campaigns have managed to suppress large-scale terrorist attacks but at an immense human and political cost.

Since Hamas’s devastating surprise assault on October 7, 2023, which killed approximately 1,200 Israelis, Israel has launched wide-ranging offensives not only in Gaza but also across the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and even Iran’s nuclear sites. These operations have targeted long-standing foes such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran — all of whom have historical ties to terrorism against Israeli civilians and military personnel. The article argues that despite this cycle of violence, Israel has so far managed to prevent a new wave of large-scale terrorist attacks within its borders, maintaining a relative—but tense—calm in a region otherwise ablaze.

This relative security stems largely from Israel’s effective disruption of terrorist leadership, intensive military and intelligence operations in Palestinian territories, and fortified internal defences. Decapitation strikes against key Hamas and Hezbollah figures, alongside a crippling blow to Iran’s nuclear program, have destabilised adversary command structures and constrained their operational capabilities. Israel’s expansion of administrative detention, stringent movement restrictions for Palestinians, and heavy surveillance within Arab Israeli communities have also impeded militants’ abilities to organise attacks.

However, the article highlights a paradox: Israel’s military successes come at an enormous price, both domestically and internationally. Civilians in Gaza, Lebanon, the West Bank, and beyond have suffered massive casualties and displacements, fueling deep resentment and anger. The harsh Israeli crackdown and the growth of radicalised settler violence in the West Bank risk igniting future flare-ups rather than preventing them. The potential for a third Palestinian intifada remains low but not impossible, while fatigue and disillusionment spread on all sides.

Moreover, Israel’s strategy is stretching its military and social fabric thin. With over 400 soldiers killed in Gaza and hundreds more in northern fronts, the toll on reservists and the wider society is palpable, exacerbating internal divisions—particularly over military exemptions granted to ultra-Orthodox communities. Economically, the prolonged conflict has increased taxes, caused labor shortages, and dampened investor confidence.

Internationally, Israel’s reputation is deteriorating, including among some traditional allies like the United States. The article stresses that this erosion of global support could have future implications, even if it does not currently impede military operations. At the same time, the looming threat of Iranian-backed terrorist attacks abroad persists, underscoring that Israel’s enemies remain motivated and dangerous despite their setbacks.

Perhaps most critically, the article contends that Israel’s “mow the grass” military approach—repeatedly suppressing militant capabilities through force without pursuing political solutions—risks locking the country into a perpetual state of war. While effective at preventing immediate terrorist attacks, it forecloses hope for a lasting peace and fuels cycles of violence, occupation, and international isolation. This approach also weakens moderate Palestinian leadership, deepens Palestinian suffering, and intensifies regional animosities.

In conclusion, Foreign Affairs offers a nuanced analysis showing that Israel’s current path delivers short-term security gains but at the expense of long-term stability. The country faces a grim trade-off: it can either continue grinding its enemies down through military might, risking endless conflict and social fragmentation, or attempt the politically fraught pursuit of reconciliation and peace—which remains elusive under present conditions. The article leaves readers with a stark understanding that Israel’s security dilemma is as much about managing the cost of success as it is about fighting terrorism itself.

By Vugar Khalilov