CSTO is living through "bad days" and doesn't have time for Armenia now Russian experts comment on Yerevan's wish-list

On November 23, a summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will be held in Yerevan. The event is expected to gather the heads of state of the member states of the bloc - Russian President Vladimir Putin, President of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Zhaparov, President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon and, of course, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Stanislav Zas, Secretary General of the CSTO, will also participate in the meetings.

According to the announced agenda of the summit, "the leaders' meeting in Armenia is supposed to discuss the problems of international and regional security, improvement of the organization’s crisis response system and joint measures to provide assistance to Armenia. Also in connection with the upcoming rotation of the leadership of the organization from January 1, 2023, the Collective Security Council will review the appointment of a new Secretary General, and the President of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko will present the priorities of the Minsk chairmanship in the organization next year".

It is not difficult to guess that Yerevan hopes very much for the help of the bloc, especially in light of the dissipated illusions about the effective support of the West. The fact that the United States and the European Union have made it clear that they are interested in being a business partner to Azerbaijan and not Armenia, which does not intend to give alms regularly, was a significant blow for Yerevan. But after having shaken this off, Pashinyan rushed to the CSTO for handouts and protection as if nothing happened, which Armenia wanted to exit.

But despite the depth of disappointment and veiled resentment, Armenia is still counting on the help of the CSTO. At least that of Moscow. Although the latter now has its own problems and is unlikely to fight for Yerevan.

The statement of Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federation Council Konstantin Kosachev confirms this.

"The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, in my view, is not within the competence of the organization. Each of the CSTO member states determines its attitude to it independently", Konstantin Kosachev said in a conversation with the newspaper "Argumenty i Fakti", responding to the question of whether this organization and Russia, as its most powerful member, can provide Armenia with more energetic support in the conflict with Azerbaijan, primarily military.

The CSTO Collective Security Council also did not yield any positive results for Armenia, which was held on October 28 by video conference at the initiative of Yerevan, where no decision was taken in its favour. Contrary to the expectations of Armenia, the final statement of the Council did not use any language of the likes of "aggression of Azerbaijan against Armenia on September 13-14". Neither was there any hint of the need to restore the territorial integrity of Armenia, which, in fact, has not been violated. The document presents the events of September 13-14 as an escalation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, without mentioning which side started the hostilities.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who spoke at the video conference, said that Russia has always supported Armenia in providing security, but the only way to reach peace is to comply with all the provisions of the joint statements of the leaders of the Russian Federation, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Russian military expert Alexey Khlobotov told Caliber.Az that Armenia is not going to receive any actual support.

"Forecasts are a thankless job. But in this case, given the circumstances surrounding Russia, the CSTO leader and the actual organizer, it is safe to say that there will be no proper support for Armenia. Many things can be said and promised, but all this will remain in words. It’s time for Russia to ask for help", the Russian expert said.

In addition, Khlobotov believes that the CSTO’s days are numbered.

"It seems that the CSTO is on the verge of dissolving itself. The state members of this bloc are now essentially unconnected. If the organization existed due to the attraction of Russia before, it is clear to everyone today that it has significantly lost significance and cannot assert influence on its satellites as it used to before", the interview stated.

Another Russian political scientist, Andrey Nikulin, expressed a similar opinion. According to him, it would be strange to count on any substantial support to Armenia from the CSTO besides declarative, given that the organization is divided and experiencing bad days and conflicts between its members.

"In addition, Central Asian members of the CSTO have repeatedly expressed their sympathy for Baku, even if only indirectly. In general, it is not necessary to consider the defensive block as an active player of the post-Soviet space. It currently only has one task and that is not to fall apart, nothing more".

On its own, Nikulin said, Moscow continues its limited assistance to Yerevan, but given the objectivity of the confrontation with Kyiv and the use of almost all its resources in the western direction, this assistance cannot be substantial.

"Moreover, dependence on the Azerbaijani ally of Türkiye is only growing and now Russia is hardly able to make abrupt steps opposing the Azerbaijan-Türkiye alliance.

This understanding is gradually emerging in Armenia as well, due to which Yerevan’s attempts to find other allies and new support are occurring, another issue that the main world players are only marginally bothered with the situation in the South Caucasus. Their interests are limited to declarations and symbolic help, there is neither power nor a desire for more", the expert noted.

According to Nikulin, in general, Yerevan’s situation is unfortunate, the reliance on large-scale Russian support has not been justified, other serious allies are not to be found, attempts to sign a peace treaty and resolve border problems are facing internal discontent and the desire to procrastinate and not make any uncomfortable decisions is limited by Azerbaijan’s harsh military pressure.

"All this together marks the gradual end of the Russian policy of checks and balances in the region - when both sides of the conflict had to regularly consult and seek Moscow’s support and leading to a gradual but unambiguous withdrawal of Russia from the region, the weakening of authority and the loss of the remnants of the imperial desire to control, albeit indirectly, the former territories of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union", Nikulin said concludingly.