Doha talks: Is Taliban ready for long-term peace? Bid for legitimacy

On June 30, the Taliban government’s delegation, led by Zabiullah Majid, attended the United Nations-led (UN) meeting in Qatar following a short-term diplomatic standoff and threats to abandon the negotiation process if Western countries keep pushing for Afghan women's rights. As a result, the UN and other countries dropped the issue from the agenda to keep diplomacy on track with the Taliban. Due to the war of words between the Taliban government and the West, the former was excluded from the first two UN-led meetings.

Since its ascension to power, the Taliban government has grappled with the international community, which refused to recognize it as a legitimate power. As a result, many leading countries, except some regional states, have not recognized the new government due to the Taliban’s strict Sharia rule with Afghan women subjected to laws characterized by the UN as "gender apartheid". Nevertheless, the UN-led international efforts to find a compromise between the Taliban and the international community amid Kabul's brutal crackdown on women and ethnic minorities' rights.

Afghanistan’s ethnic landscape includes Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Aimak, and Baloch. However, Pashtuns predominantly serve in the Taliban government while the other groups remain underrepresented and marginalized.

Indeed, the Taliban itself refuses to cooperate with any member of Afghan civil society or human rights activists, which has provoked outcry among the groups. Hence, the new Afghan authorities reiterate the position that those issues are domestic and Kabul "will not tolerate any interference into domestic affairs." In addition to the international community, the Taliban still faces domestic security challenges, such as the Islamic State-linked proxy groups and armed militants in its border areas with Pakistan and Iran. The long-term presence of such challenges hints at the idea that the new Afghan rulers must win over Afghans and foreign nations, many of which have been hesitant to accept the Taliban as a legitimate authority.

Among the major problems in Afghanistan, the lack of nationalism as a unification factor for the war-torn country and deeply divided society seems crucial. Despite the Taliban government's dominance in terms of security, economic resources, and support of large Pashtun communities, local warlords, who do not cooperate with Kabul, hold a much greater influence in the peripheral areas. As such, it sets a dangerous precedent and jeopardizes the fragile domestic security, preventing the Taliban from fulfilling its commitment as a civil government.

Nevertheless, new Afghan authorities successfully negotiated with neighboring countries like Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, India, Türkiye, Iran, and Pakistan. Recently, Kazakhstan officially removed the Taliban from the terrorist organization's list, dispatching its ambassador to Kabul, while Russia will likely follow suit soon. The Taliban’s approach toward regional policy and their stance suggests that Kabul is keen to receive a “green light” from its close neighbors that would pave the war for international recognition. Therefore, the recent tangible results in relations with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Russia emboldened the Taliban government to ramp up demands toward the UN ahead of the Doha meeting.

As such, the Taliban ruled out any meeting with Afghan women rights activists based in the Western countries and took a harsh stance toward Kabul. Nevertheless, the Afghan authorities demand the elimination of all sanctions and restrictions, particularly restrictions on international bank transfers and the return of all frozen assets in Switzerland. Although the UN agreed on some concessions regarding Afghan women's rights in order to proceed with negotiations with the Taliban, it is unlikely that the latter's other demands regarding sanctions will yield positive results at this stage.

Any attempt of the UN to reconcile with the Taliban demands will cause outcry and harsh criticism of various NGOs and human rights groups in light of the Afghan government’s growing repressive measures against local women, despite their 2021 statement that they would respect women's rights, trumpeting a newly-discovered moderation. Indeed, the Taliban’s archaic and oppressive tactics against minorities continue to jeopardize their legitimacy.