El Niño likely to push up global temperatures, WMO warns

The World Meteorological Organisation has warned that El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific, raising the likelihood of disrupted rainfall patterns and higher global temperatures over the coming months.

In its latest El Niño/La Niña Update, the agency said there is an 80% probability of an El Niño event forming during June–August 2026, with chances of it persisting through at least November rising to 90% or higher.

Forecast models suggest the event will most likely be moderate, though a stronger development cannot be ruled out.

The phenomenon, part of the broader El Niño / La Niña Phenomena cycle, is driven by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. WMO observations show subsurface ocean heat anomalies exceeding 6°C above average, feeding surface warming and strengthening the developing signal.

The organisation said atmospheric indicators, including the Southern Oscillation Index, are also consistent with emerging El Niño conditions. While uncertainty remains over the timing and peak intensity, officials stressed the need for preparedness.

“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” said Celeste Saulo.

The WMO said its forecasts are based on a consensus of global climate models, including input from national meteorological services and research centres such as the International Research Institute for Climate and Society. It added that seasonal updates aim to support governments and humanitarian agencies in preparing for potential impacts.

“The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.” said António Guterres, in his video statement.

Experts note that El Niño events typically influence global weather by intensifying drought in some regions while increasing heavy rainfall and flood risks in others. The WMO cautioned that early warning systems and preparedness measures will be crucial to limit humanitarian and economic disruption if the event strengthens in line with forecasts.

By Aghakazim Guliyev