Election outcomes, opposition dissent, and shadow of the West Experts analyze Georgia’s political landscape

Although the recent elections in Georgia have concluded, the opposition, along with external allies, continues to challenge the outcome through protests and a refusal to accept the results. However, do they truly stand a chance of overturning these results?

Caliber.Az posed this question to Georgian political analysts for insight.

Temur Maisuradze, a Georgian politician and academician at the Engineering Academy of Georgia, as well as the director of the Georgian Polytechnic University’s Natural Disasters Research Center, shared his perspective on the current geopolitical climate and the importance of a well-considered choice for the nation’s future.

“For the fourth consecutive term, the Georgian people have elected the ‘Georgian Dream’ — a feat no other political force has achieved in post-Soviet Georgia, which certainly speaks to its legitimacy. While I may have some questions as a voter, it’s essential to approach this situation with rationality: as the saying goes, you don’t change horses in midstream. The opposition in Georgia draws its support primarily from the youth, which in principle is positive. But these young people have no memory of Georgia’s harsh realities in the 1990s or the early 2000s and are largely influenced by a European narrative. This is why I don’t endorse the forces that threaten to erode Georgia’s sovereignty and stability. My choice, therefore, is a conscious one in favour of the ‘Georgian Dream’," he stated.

The expert expressed belief that street protests in Georgia will soon dissipate, especially as the opposition lacks evidence of election fraud. The government is ready to provide full transparency, inviting observers from all countries to review ballots and confirm the integrity of the election. Georgia’s government is confident in its legitimacy, and while it can take stronger measures if protests become hostile, let’s hope it won’t come to that.

“Supporters of the opposition are often young members of society not yet old enough to vote or those who have idealized the West over the past three decades. Another group includes NGO representatives reliant on Western grants — around 25,000 people, whose families depend on this income. Understandably, they advocate for Western ties, aligning with its agenda. Sadly, they are willing to sacrifice Georgia’s sovereignty in pursuit of these ideals, assuming that Western influence will transform Georgia into a land of plenty.

“However, I don’t foresee a coup in Georgia. A successful coup would require a corrupt, compromised government and a population willing to betray its country for foreign interests, which isn’t the case here. Georgia has been fortunate in its governance. Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the West’s true face has emerged, and Georgian society has taken note.

“Regarding the future, I foresee the following scenario unfolding after the elections: initially, the West will attempt to destabilize the government. However, once it becomes apparent that these efforts are failing, it will adopt a dual approach — like the two-faced Janus — by engaging in dialogue and fostering rapprochement with the ruling party as if no conflict had occurred. In fact, it may even declare that, upon review, the elections in Georgia were indeed fair and transparent. This is characteristic of the West and exemplifies its strategic approach,” Maisuradze summed up.

Beso Kurtanidze, analyst and editor of the European Perspective project, emphasizes that the situation in Georgia must be viewed in the context of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war.

“Imagine a NATO-Russia soccer match, where Georgia is vying for a spot on the NATO team. We have expressed our desire to join this alliance, but during the match, it becomes clear that Georgia is failing to meet the expectations placed upon it. Consequently, according to Western logic, the current 'Georgian Dream' government should be replaced with one that strictly adheres to Western directives — imposing sanctions on Russia and barring Russian tourists from entering the country.

"What we are witnessing in Georgia today can be seen as a covert operation by the West aimed at regime change. Efforts to destabilize the situation began even before the elections. While numerous foreign observers monitored polling stations, they reported no significant violations. However, a campaign was soon launched to sensationalize alleged vote rigging.

"I inquired with some opposition acquaintances whether they had evidence of violations that would justify a rally. Their response was, ‘No.’ Yet, after the Central Election Commission released the initial results, they claimed the official lists were inaccurate and accused the government of rigging the elections. For instance, opposition leader Nikoloz Gvaramia suggested that Russia was behind the alleged election fraud, despite lacking any proof — much like the U.S. failed to provide evidence of Russian interference in Trump’s victory. It’s absurd,” he remarked.

Kurtanidze further expressed concern over the precarious situation, as the West holds significant leverage over Georgia. There is a possibility of the lari devaluing and the suspension of the visa-free regime, which would adversely affect a large portion of the Georgian population.

“It’s disheartening, as many families currently rely on Western aid, and a halt in NGO funding would jeopardize their livelihoods. We lack oil or other resources to sustain ourselves in isolation. Additionally, we should remember that the U.S. has been known to overthrow one or two governments annually in various regions around the world. It has been a decade since the Maidan in Kyiv, and there has yet to be conclusive evidence proving that the opposition wasn’t responsible for the deaths of protesters. As we recall, Yanukovych fled the country then. A similar scenario is a source of anxiety in Georgia as well,” he concluded.