Experts debate what is driving Afghanistan-Pakistan rivalry Is the war on the cards?

Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif declared that he would not tolerate cross-border terrorism following Pakistan's air strikes on the Afghan provinces of Paktika and Khost. Zabihullah Mujahid of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA, as the Taliban call the country) reacted by warning of "very bad consequences for Islamabad". Sharif insisted that Pakistan's borders were a red line for terrorism and that "terrorism has to be wiped out". Over the past year, Pakistan has consistently accused the IEA of supporting terrorist groups such as the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and has repeatedly called on Kabul to take serious action against the group, such as extraditing its leaders. However, the IEA has consistently rejected all of Pakistan's demands.

Against this backdrop, Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said his country did not want an armed conflict with Afghanistan, but warned that Islamabad could block the corridor it provides to landlocked Afghanistan for trade with India. "If Afghanistan treats us as an enemy, why should we give them a trade corridor?" Asif asked.

IEA spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid warned Islamabad of serious consequences. "Pakistan should not blame Afghanistan for lack of control, incompetence and problems on its territory. Such incidents can have very bad consequences that are beyond Pakistan's control," Mujahid said in a statement.

Since March 19, there has been a tense calm along the 2,600-kilometre Afghan-Pakistani border (the so-called Durand Line, which Kabul does not recognise). Experts say that while the IEA does not have the military strength to attack Pakistan, the Taliban may use other means, including active support for Islamists. Former Pakistani Information Minister Jan Achakzai argues that if the Taliban continue to attack Pakistan, Islamabad will quickly annex the Wakhan Corridor, a narrow strip of land in north-eastern Afghanistan between Tajikistan, Pakistan and China. It serves as a buffer zone between Afghanistan and its neighbours. Historically, the Wakhan Corridor was an important trade route linking Central Asia with South Asia and the Middle East and played a crucial role in the ancient Silk Road network.

What are the reasons for this dangerous standoff between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which has been growing for months and has now reached a boiling point? After all, Pashtuns make up a significant part of the population in both countries. Is there a risk of another major war in the world, now between these states?

Foreign experts shared their views on this issue with Caliber.Az.

Sergei Danilov, deputy director of the Kyiv-based Centre for Middle East Studies, noted that a Taliban commander published a post online with a map of Afghanistan that includes several Pakistani provinces.

"He wrote that 'this is the main plan of the Afghan government to liberate the territories occupied by Pakistan, and the people of Afghanistan will soon achieve their goal'. On this map, Afghanistan has access to the world's oceans and is not dependent on the situation at the border crossing. The strain on bilateral relations comes amid an increase in attacks by the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Talibani Pakistan). In recent weeks, many videos have appeared on social networks showing the readiness of hundreds of fighters from both Taliban to launch attacks in Khost province and other tense points along the unrecognised border," says the expert.

Will we see a new regional war? Will the Pakistani artillery attacks on Afghan villages where the Pakistani Taliban have their bases continue?

"There will not be a regional war in all likelihood. The parties will engage in a controlled escalation, accompanied by loud statements and mutual threats. Literally against the backdrop of columns of armed men seemingly heading for war, the spokesman for the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, Zabihullah Mujahid, urged the new Pakistani government on the importance of positive relations between Kabul and Islamabad. In particular, Zabihullah Mujahid called on the newly elected Pakistani government not to expel Afghan refugees. Independent sources estimate that there are now around 2.5 million people living in refugee camps in Pakistan. Their expulsion to Afghanistan could destabilise the situation in the poor and war-torn country. Refugees are not the only issue between the two countries. But both sides have leverage over each other and we are witnessing another stage of mutual blackmail," Danilov said.

By contrast, Tajik political scientist Parviz Mullodzhanov says the reasons for today's conflict lie in the history of the two states' creation.

"In 1893, under a treaty between Britain and Afghanistan, most of the land inhabited by Pashtuns came under the British protectorate and later became part of Pakistan. Today's border between the two countries, known as the Durand Line, remains undemarcated and unrecognised by any Afghan government, including both Taliban regimes," he said.

Pakistan's foreign policy of maintaining the political dominance of the Pashtun majority in Afghanistan and preventing the break-up of Afghanistan along national lines has been in place for many decades, he said.

"It was understood that such a development would be a threat to Pakistan's national integrity, as it would strengthen Pashtun aspirations for reunification on both sides of the Durand Line. Pakistan therefore played a key role in bringing the Taliban to power, both in the 1990s and in 2021, with the explicit expectation that the new Afghan government would not support the separatism of Pashtun Islamist and tribal groups in Pakistan. However, the hopes of Pakistan's political technologists were not fulfilled - the new Taliban government not only refused to recognise the Durand Line but increased its support for Pakistani Islamists, mainly local Taliban from the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan movement," Mullodzhanov stressed.

At the same time, he says, the Taliban regime remains extremely dependent on Pakistan for political, military, logistical and other support.

"The whole situation is making Islamabad very irritated, which is putting increasing pressure on Kabul to at least stop supporting the TTP. At the same time, it is unlikely that the conflict between the two countries will enter a hot phase - this would have serious negative consequences for Islamabad, which would be forced to admit that its entire thirty-year strategy on the Afghan issue has been a failure. In fact, all of Pakistan's leading institutions, including key political leaders, have been involved in shaping and justifying this policy.

As a result, Islamabad itself has to some extent become a hostage of its foreign policy and is 'doomed' to continue it in one form or another, which is well understood in Kabul. Therefore, in the coming years, the disagreements between the two countries are likely to continue more in the form of trading political notes, threats and statements, perhaps measures of economic pressure from Islamabad, but are unlikely to move into a phase of open military confrontation," the Tajik analyst concluded.