Experts: US troop cuts may shake security in Poland, Baltics

The potential reduction of US troops in Europe could have significant consequences, particularly for Poland and the Baltic states, experts warn.

Ben Harris, a research associate for Europe and US foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, stated that these nations would be "the first affected" by any troop drawdown, which could weaken the overall security of the region, Caliber.Az reports per foreign media.

Harris explained that a partial withdrawal would likely start with US troops deployed since February 2022 under NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence programme, which was initiated in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This program aims to strengthen NATO’s eastern defences, particularly in countries close to Russia. US military forces in Europe are divided into several categories. Some troops are permanently stationed long-term and are accompanied by their families, with the majority based in Germany, Italy, and the UK. There are also rotational forces, such as those under NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence and Operation Atlantic Resolve, which are funded above the normal defence budget.

The US leads a multinational battlegroup in Poland as part of this effort. Additionally, the National Guard State Partnership Programmes operate under bilateral agreements with European nations. Harris noted that President Trump would not need US Congressional approval to reduce troop numbers in Europe. However, any such move would face considerable challenges, especially related to the relocation of military equipment. The US has a wide range of assets in the region, including tanks, helicopters, ships, and nuclear weapons, with Aegis Ashore missile defence systems in Romania and Poland playing a crucial role in defending Europe from aerial threats. 

In 2020, Trump proposed reducing US troops in Germany by about 12,000, but the plan was delayed due to high relocation costs and eventually scrapped by President Joe Biden. Retired General Ben Hodges suggested that uncertainty over US military presence could push European countries to strengthen their defence collaboration. "The uncertainty could push European capitals to combine their capabilities and defense industries," he said. He added that while US troops provide nuclear deterrence and air and sea power, European forces have the advantage in terms of size and capability on the ground.

By Naila Huseynova