"Food crisis will affect not only Russia but the whole world" Caliber.Az interview with Oleg Bondarenko

Caliber.Az presents an interview with the director of the Progressive Policy Foundation, the Russian expert on the Balkan countries, Oleg Bondarenko.

- Oleg Vladimirovich, can the current geopolitical situation affect the Balkans? Are there any real prerequisites for the emergence of new hotbeds of tension in this part of the continent?

- The Balkans may be compared to a tinderbox in Europe, with several hotbeds of tension: Kosovo, and the unsettled status in Bosnia and Herzegovina. I suppose if the West wants to blow up the situation there, it will. If the West wants peace, it will keep it. But at this stage it is not quite correct to predict ahead of events; everything may change at any moment.

- Try to assess objectively the West's policy towards Russia...

- The West is actually waging an open war with Russia. And there are no analogues of this war even in modern history. It is no longer a "cold" war, but a "hot" war with the supply of weapons and other things. Yes, we have to admit that the West is more consolidated than ever, and we have never been in this situation before, even in the difficult times of the Soviet Union, if you remember the Cuban Missile Crisis. I suppose we could draw some parallels with the Korean War in the current situation.

- Which ones?

- The Korean War happened after World War II and was in part an episode that continued the redistribution of the sphere of influence on the planet in its wake. The two world powers, the two winners, the USSR and the United States, clashed in it. But it was still a local war on the world's periphery, with only two sides taking part behind the scenes. Now we see a completely different story - the collective West and the more aggressive behaviour of some European countries, in particular Poland, Germany and Britain, which thus seeks to strengthen their influence in Europe.

- Is consolidation between Russia and China in confrontation with the collective West possible in the foreseeable future?

- This is a difficult question that cannot be answered unequivocally.

- Europe is still not giving up on Russian hydrocarbons, coal, titanium and other raw materials. Does this mean that there will never be a final break in relations between Russia and Europe?

- Yes. Obviously, there will not be a definitive break between Russia and Europe in the next few years. They are highly dependent on each other in the energy sphere. So we are tightly connected to Europe in the near future, and we will stay with it.

- How will the West's sanctions policy on Russia change?

- The West demands that Russia withdraw all troops from Ukraine, a condition that cannot be met by Moscow. By withdrawal, the West means primarily Donbass and Crimea, and Russia will definitely never withdraw from there. At the same time, it should be understood that sanctions are not imposed in order to be lifted quickly. The sanctions against the Soviet Union - the same Jackson-Vanik amendment imposed in 1974 - remained in effect until the 21st century, and were only lifted in 2010, almost 20 years after the collapse of the USSR. This is a vivid example of the fact that sanctions are not imposed for abolition, and that you have to know how to work with them.

As for the tightening of the sanctions' regime against Russia, I think the West has, in a sense, led itself to a deadlock. In fact, half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves that were in the West have not just been blocked, they have been stolen. Claims that part of these funds will be used to rebuild Ukraine cannot be called anything other than theft of the century. The sanctions potential has been exhausted; there is nowhere to develop it further.

- How long will it take for the Russian economy to adapt to the Western sanctions?

- This is quite a long process. The Russian economy, like the European economy, will take several years to adapt. In the global world, everyone depends on each other. In some cases, Europe itself is even more affected by sanctions than Russia. European businessmen are desperate because they sometimes suffer more than their Russian counterparts. They have lost the market, spatial investments, good business opportunities, and so on. In a word, they are now faced with a bunch of problems, which one way or another will have to be overcome. But again, the European market, like the Russian market, will take years to refocus. So right now, besides the US, Europe and Russia stand to lose from this geopolitical situation.

- Unlike Europe, is it correct to speak of a complete break in US-Russian relations?

- Actually, right now, there is no relationship between Russia and the United States. It is clear that ambassadors are working on it, protest notes are exchanged, and there are occasional calls from representatives of security agencies of the two countries. So there is no point in talking about the future of US-Russian relations.

- How do you see the future of global processes in the world and Russia?

- Unfortunately, I see a problematic future for the world in the near future. It is clear that a global recession is inevitable in the social, economic, and professional spheres. Russia will have to return to the production level of the late 20th century, since many spheres of production have not developed since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Accordingly, the entire domestic technological base has remained at the level of the late 1980s. It has not developed over these years, including through the purchase of Western technology. As a consequence, at the moment, Russia is faced with the urgent question of recreating its production base.

- Is a global food crisis inevitable for everyone?

- Of course. It will not only affect Russia. So the whole world needs to prepare for difficult times.