Gaza war puts Abraham Accords at risk as Arab states reconsider ties Analysis by Bloomberg

The recent Bloomberg report examines how Israel’s war in Gaza has upended the Abraham Accords — the 2020 US-brokered normalization agreements that were once heralded as a turning point in the Middle East. Five years after their signing, the accords are under unprecedented strain. The piece notes that Israel’s military actions, its expansionist rhetoric, and the fallout from regional strikes have not only stalled normalization with Saudi Arabia but also cast doubt over existing agreements with the UAE, Egypt, and Jordan.

In August 2023, Israel’s then-Energy Minister Israel Katz visited the Abrahamic Family House in Abu Dhabi, symbolizing the warmth of relations after the 2020 accords. But two months later Hamas’s October 7 attack and Israel’s devastating Gaza campaign reversed that momentum.

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed has refused to meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since, while Saudi Arabia, which was close to sealing a US-backed normalization deal, now condemns Israel almost daily and accuses it of genocide.

Israel’s regional posture has grown increasingly aggressive. Over the past year it has carried out strikes in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iran, and most recently Qatar, where an unprecedented airstrike on Hamas leaders in Doha triggered emergency meetings of Gulf states.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned that Netanyahu’s “Greater Israel” ambitions threaten regional countries directly, while Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi said Israel’s actions obstruct any prospects for new peace agreements and may even jeopardize existing ones.

Cairo has hinted it could reassess its 1979 peace treaty if Palestinians are pushed into Sinai, while Jordan sees annexation of the West Bank as an existential danger.

The backlash is not limited to rhetoric. A summit of 57 Arab and Muslim nations in Doha called for sanctions and even the severing of ties with Israel. Analysts such as Marwan Muasher, Jordan’s former foreign minister, argue that Israel’s military actions “go beyond any credible argument of self-defense” and could push Arab governments to take stronger punitive steps.

Despite this, US and Israeli officials remain publicly confident. Washington insists Trump can still expand the circle of peace, with officials framing even the Doha airstrikes as an “opportunity for peace.” But many observers say the Gaza war has exposed the limits of the accords by showing they cannot be separated from the unresolved Palestinian issue.

For the UAE, which joined the accords to promote a narrative of trade, investment, and regional integration, Israel’s policies pose a “red line.” A senior Emirati official admitted the agreements are “under enormous strain” and warned that annexing more West Bank land would be a “strategic error” that could undo years of progress. Yet Gulf states see no viable alternative to the US as guarantor of their security, meaning they remain bound by their reliance on Washington even as they deepen pragmatic contacts with Iran.

Ultimately, while the UAE and others have not withdrawn from the Abraham Accords, the optimism of 2020 has given way to disillusionment. As Bloomberg notes, “everything is on the table” now, with the future of regional normalization hanging in the balance.