Georgia braces for intense political climate with upcoming parliamentary election Expert insights

Georgian expert Gia Khukhashvili has said that four political centres are being formed in Georgia before the parliamentary election by uniting parties.

He noted that most of the pro-Western opposition members think that several opposition associations should go to the election on October 26 to gain a victory over the ruling Georgian Dream party. There is also an opinion about uniting the entire pro-Western opposition, but it is unsuccessful.

Khukhashvili also said that the youth who led the protests against the Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence will be able to gain power by integrating into these political centres.

“Youth must begin to structure and must negotiate as an independent player. Young people must not participate in the election on their own, the four centers that will be created in the future should join one of them as an independent entity. There may be several such youth groups. This is necessary because our country is in a transitional stage, the old political elite must slowly leave, while young people must gain power,” Khukhashvili said.

He noted that the coalition has a future.

“The members of the opposition United National Movement party will have 10 per cent or 15 per cent in this coalition government which does not actually mean that they will regain power. This means that they will have their own small segment. Voters will take this action,” Khukhashvili said.

At the same time, he noted that Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili will play a key role in the coalition government.

“When we talk about unity and cohesion, Zourabichvili and the Charter are the connecting link of this unity. She, as a presidential candidate, is a personal link in this unity,” Khukhashvili said.

President Zourabichvili offered opposition parties in late May to sign the “Georgian Charter” and thereby undertake an obligation after the parliamentary elections of October 2024 to abolish laws that impede the country’s European policy, carry out reforms in the judicial, law enforcement and other spheres and hold snap elections. According to the charter, this plan must be carried out by the government members appointed by the president.

Zourabichvili's charter was signed by 17 parties and five independent MPs. Among the members of the parties who did not sign the document are “Girchi” party and “For Georgia” party of former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia.

The opposition party members noted that at this stage the parties are negotiating among themselves. Among them are “Lelo for Georgia”, “Droa”, “Girchi” and “Ahali”, created by ex-members of the former ruling and now the biggest opposition “United National Movement”.

The parliamentary election in Georgia is scheduled for October 26. This will be the first election to be held by using an e-voting system in 90 per cent of polling stations in the country. This will also be the first election in Georgia to be held upon a fully proportional system, that’s 150 MPs will be appointed upon the voting process.

At the same time, the party will be able to enter parliament by gaining at least five per cent of the votes. To obtain a parliamentary majority, the party will have to receive the support of at least 50 per cent of voters who will vote both in Georgia and abroad. The parliamentary election determine who will have the right to form a government and govern the country for the next four years.

According to the preliminary information, an unprecedented number of observers will arrive to monitor the election this year. Besides the OSCE, the EU and the US have already announced the sending of numerous missions.

Is it correct for the opposition to go to the parliamentary election with several associations to gain a victory over the Georgian Dream? Will more than half of the parliamentary seats in the future parliament belong to the pro-Western opposition party members thanks to this approach?

Georgian experts answered Caliber.Az journalist’s questions.

Professor at the International Black Sea University (Tbilisi) and director of the Centre of International Studies Nika Chitadze said that of course, the unification of some pro-Western parties is very important for winning the parliamentary election.

“There are several versions about a general unification not to lose the people’s votes. However, there is another opinion. For example, the Lelo party members state that it will not be in the same coalition with the United National Movement. So, 2-3 centres are still expected to be created. On the one hand, it will be, for example, the United National Movement, which has a real chance not only to overcome a five per cent barrier - it has about 20-25 per cent of voters. On the other hand, such parties as 'Lelo' or 'Droa' ('Time'), 'Girchi' can unite separately. They individually have the problem of overcoming a five per cent barrier. If they unite, they have a good chance of getting into parliament. This could be a second centre. The third centre is the 'Ahali' ('New') party, created by people who left the United National Movement,” the professor said.

He noted that public organisations are calling on all these parties to go to the election with a single list, but it is almost impossible to do this, that’s, most likely, there will be 2-3 centres.

“Moreover, former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia’s For Georgia party also has a chance to overcome a five per cent barrier. This party may take an independent position during the parliamentary election. On the other hand, as for President Zourabichvili and the Charter initiated by her, which was signed by the members of the opposition parties, within this document, I think they will cooperate with each other, meet, consult, and exchange opinions,” he said.

“For its part, Georgian Dream party members fear that they will be unable to get more than 50 per cent and will lose the opportunity to form a government because the election will be held according to a purely proportional system and all 150 MPs will be party members. Earlier, for example, in 2020, Georgian Dream managed to appoint its representatives through the majority lists and form a parliamentary majority, now it will be more difficult for it. There is another potential big problem - an attempt to falsify the election results. Let’s see how international observers from the Council of Europe, the EU, the UN, and the OSCE can contribute for this election in Georgia to comply with democratic norms,” Chitadze said.

In turn, expert in conflict, doctor of international relations, professor at the Georgian Technical University Amiran Khevtsuriani said that the upcoming parliamentary election is not ordinary for Georgia.

“The election acquired particular importance after there was a deviation from the foreign policy supported by the majority of the population, which jeopardized the future of the country. Today more people are aware of these risks and treat this process more responsibly. It is clear that the rating of the Georgian Dream is at a catastrophic level, and it has no chance of winning fair, democratic election. However, this does not mean its defeat, so a correct and effective approach is necessary,” he noted.

The expert said that it is vital for the opposition to expand for the state administrative office not to concentrate on one goal, as it has done so far and achieved success.

“Of course, this method will work to the benefit of people and the opposition. However, in this case we are faced with a second problem: that is, not a single opposition vote should be lost as the barrier is five per cent. In this situation, the consolidation of parties and the creation of several centres of power become of great importance. The emergence of four political centres is quite realistic and promising. It is important for these centres to agree on common rules of the game for the pro-Western part of Georgian society not to be deceived. They must publicly promise that not to create a coalition with Georgian Dream. This will become the ‘red line’ of this historic election. I am convinced that this is the formula for victory, he said.

He hopes that the opposition parties will eventually show common sense, otherwise they will no longer have a place in Georgian politics and the country will return to the “dark and hopeless” past for decades.