Global economy at risk as Iran conflict fuels inflation fears — IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that ongoing disruptions linked to the Iran war are pushing the global economy toward a more “adverse” scenario of weaker growth and rising inflation risks, Iran International reports.

In a statement, the IMF said continued instability could significantly worsen the global economic outlook, already under pressure from geopolitical tensions and energy market volatility.

Last month, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook projected global growth of 3.1% in 2026 under its baseline scenario. However, it cautioned that a prolonged conflict involving Iran could substantially alter that trajectory.

In its adverse scenario, the fund warned that persistently high oil prices, unstable inflation expectations, and tighter financial conditions could reduce global growth to 2.5%.

The IMF stressed that sustained disruptions in energy markets would remain a key risk factor for global economic stability, particularly if the conflict escalates or extends over a longer period.

By Vafa Guliyeva