How is Saudi Arabia balancing relations with US amid global crisis? Fear diplomacy toward the Gulf

On June 8, 2023, the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken paid an official visit to Saudi Arabia in a bid to initiate the diplomatic normalization with Riyadh because there have been differences between both countries due to several factors. The relations between Washington and Riyadh have strained since President Joe Biden assumed office and took a critical position toward Saudi Arabia attempting to limit its influence in the Middle East. Undoubtedly, such a position triggered anti-American sentiments in Riyadh, particularly for Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MbS).

During the visit to Riyadh, Secretary Blinken spoke with Crown Prince MbS and the two committed to advancing stability, security, and prosperity across the Middle East and beyond. In fact, both countries' main negotiation agenda includes important topics like the Yemen ceasefire, Iran's nuclear program, Saudi-China engagement, and normalization between Riyadh and Tel Aviv.

The US has not been comfortable with Riyadh’s growing proximity with Beijing, especially in the economic sphere. In comparison to Biden’s Saudi Arabia visit, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Saudi Arabia in December 2022 was far more substantive, not just in the bilateral context, but the Chinese President also attended the first China-Arab States Summit as well as the first China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit.

Indeed, it should have been anticipated by Blinken that such a reception awaited him. Prior to his visit, Saudi Arabia had unilaterally decided to reduce its oil production by 1 million barrels per day in order to prevent a decline in oil prices, disregarding the warnings issued by the United States.

Riyadh’s decision to cut oil production came on June 4, when the kingdom announced its intention to slash output by another one million barrels per day for at least a month starting in July as part of an effort by OPEC+ producers to shore up crude prices.

Consequently, the Saudi production cut was its most prominent in years and will depress its output to nine million barrels daily. In a broader context, the supply curbs meant gas prices in Europe and the United States “could slightly rise, further impacting drivers during the upcoming summer holiday season.

The US stance on oil production is justified at this stage amid Russia’s invasion campaign of Ukraine since February 2022. However, unlike Western partners, Saudi Arabia enjoyed cordial relations with Russia and refused to keep a low profile even after the invasion began. Such an attitude irritated Ukraine and Western partners and triggered criticism.

Secretary of State Blinken was not the first senior American official to visit Saudi Arabia in the past month. National security adviser Jake Sullivan visited Riyadh on May 7. However, Sullivan's visit alone was insufficient to fully restore the strained relations between the two countries, leading to the Foreign Minister's extended visit to Saudi Arabia a month later.

Although Blinken’s address of Gulf countries (GCC) during the Riyadh visit aimed at alleviating the diplomatic crisis, the GCC's, namely Saudi Arabia's motivation behind striving toward Beijing, is the US's disengagement from the region.

The Gulf states are concerned about diminishing Americans' attentiveness to their security problems. They are outraged that Washington expects them to respond to US demands with alacrity, most recently in the context of oil production, while the US turns its back on their requests in the security sphere.

For example, Saudi Arabia expected more significant American assistance in countering the Houthis attacks against its strategic home front and was surprised at the US decision to withdraw forces from Saudi territory, especially anti-missile and anti-drone defences.

The United Arab Emirates also expected a determined American response – military and diplomatic – following the attack by the Houthis in January 2022. The UAE was mainly surprised by the refusal of the American administration to add the Houthis to the list of foreign terrorist organizations (FTO) after the US administration had removed them from the list immediately after Biden took office.

Despite Joe Biden’s attempts to restore the ties and confidence with the Gulf states, Secretary Blinken's visit to Riyadh will likely yield short-term positive results for the US regional influence.

Indeed, the US has long neglected the Middle East region resulting in a significant power vacuum. As a result, the US no longer instils the same level of fear as it did several decades ago. Regional states developed good relations with other regional and global powers like Russia, India, and China to counterbalance the US influence and pursue a more independent foreign policy to tackle regional challenges.