How Russia’s resistance to Eastern EU expansion drives Northern expansion talks

“There are 12 countries on the waiting list to become members of the European Union,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in April. Commission staff quickly reached out to her cabinet with a correction: there are only ten EU candidate countries, they noted, including Kosovo. But von der Leyen’s team responded that this was no mistake; Iceland and Norway are on her list. In fact, the accession of northern European countries to the EU is looking increasingly attractive to both sides.

Recent geopolitical developments, mainly driven by Russia’s war on Ukraine and the string of devastating consequences that followed therefore but enhanced by US President Donald Trump’s antagonism toward NATO, are fuelling support for EU accession in Greenland, Iceland, and Norway. While northern enlargement would not happen quickly, an article published by Project Syndicate argues EU leaders should start laying the groundwork for it.

The idea of northern EU enlargement is hardly radical. Northern European countries are already deeply integrated with the EU, through the European Economic Area and Schengen. But so far, they have eschewed membership in the Union. While Iceland opened accession negotiations in 2010, it suspended the process five years later. Norway has held two referenda on EU membership, but “no” won narrowly both times. Greenland, a self-governing territory of Denmark, was part of the European Communities until 1985, when it voted to withdraw following a dispute over fishing rights.

But recent geopolitical developments have fundamentally changed the logic of enlargement. With Iceland, Norway, and especially Greenland facing intensifying security concerns, Article 42.7 of the Treaty on the EU – which establishes a commitment to mutual defense that is, in legal terms, stronger than NATO’s Article 5 – has gained considerable appeal.

"In today’s dog-eat-dog world, membership in a political union like the EU is not a shackle, but a shield," the article notes.

Beyond national security, the paper argues that northern European countries have lately been feeling the effects of their exclusion from EU decision-making. In January, Norway’s government collapsed over the implementation of EU energy policies, which it had no formal role in shaping. More recently, Norway has been suffering the consequences of trade tensions between the EU and the United States – tensions that it cannot participate directly in resolving. This prompted a large Norwegian delegation to travel to Brussels to get the country’s voice heard.

Iceland’s government is already planning a referendum on restarting accession talks, and debate on the topic in Norway has been reinvigorated. According to the article, public support for EU membership has reached record highs in both countries. Polls suggest that a majority of voters in Greenland would also favour joining the EU, should such a discussion be initiated by the territory’s autonomous institutions.

From the EU’s perspective, northern enlargement would be a strategic boon. Iceland would contribute renewable-energy expertise and maritime reach; Norway would bring energy security and an Arctic presence; and Greenland would provide access to critical minerals and emerging sea routes. Their accession would thus reinforce the EU’s global clout, institutional credibility, and economic and energy resilience which are all areas that have been greatly affected by Russia's war on Ukraine and its subsequent consequences.

Of course, the enlargement process takes time, and each new member’s path is different but the article's author that the EU must recognize the potential for northern enlargement and communicate that it is open to engagement on the topic. The European Commission under von der Leyen has done so, opening an office in Nuuk, Greenland in March 2024 and visiting Iceland in July this year.

The article urges that the Council of the EU should now follow suit. The Danish presidency is an ideal opportunity to initiate this process. Denmark argues in its program for the presidency that enlargement is a “geopolitical necessity.” Moreover, Denmark is uniquely positioned to support and facilitate dialogue with the North.

By Nazrin Sadigova