How Trump's threats to Canada breathed new life into liberal party once on brink of collapse

Canada’s political landscape has shifted dramatically in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s threats against the country. Only a few months earlier most Canadians would have confidently expected a clear victory for the Conservative Party in the upcoming elections, who led against the deeply unpopular prime minister's liberal camp by double-digits. However, that prediction is now far from guaranteed as polls show.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party has experienced a surge in support following Trump’s tariffs and his calls to make Canada "the 51st state."

According to an article by BBC, these have fundamentally altered voter priorities, resulting in the once deeply unpopular Trudeau's approval rate climbing by 12 points since December 2024 despite his planned resignation.

Luc Turgeon, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, observes that Trump’s rhetoric has "pushed away all of the other issues" that previously occupied Canadians. Trudeau's successor, to be announced in the coming days, will face two immediate decisions: how to respond to Trump and when to call a general election.

Changing election outlook

A federal election must be held by October 20 but could be called much sooner. Polls indicate that many Canadians still want a leadership change, but whether that means a new Liberal leader or a Conservative government is uncertain. "Up until now, it was a blowout for the Conservatives," says Greg Lyle, president of the Innovative Research Group.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who many believed was poised to take over as PM  had successfully campaigned on economic struggles, crime, and healthcare issues, tying them to what he called Trudeau’s "disastrous" policies. His promise of "common sense politics" resonated with voters. However, with Trudeau stepping down and Trump threatening Canada’s economy, Poilievre’s messaging has lost some of its appeal. Lyle’s polling suggests that many Canadians now fear Trump’s presidency more than anything else.

Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canadian imports, temporarily paused until April 2, could devastate the economy, which relies on the US for three-quarters of its trade. Up to a million jobs are at risk, and a recession looms if the tariffs persist. Trudeau has taken a strong stance, stating, "What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that'll make it easier to annex us."

Who can stand up to Trump?

With the election increasingly framed as a battle against Trump, voters are considering who is best positioned to defend Canada’s interests. Conservatives still lead with 40% support, but the Liberals have rebounded to over 30%, up 10 points since January.

Liberals have tried to tie Poilievre to Trump, referring to him as "our little version of Trump here at home" and airing ads showing similarities in their rhetoric. Trump himself dismissed the comparison, telling The Spectator that Poilievre is "not MAGA enough." Still, Conservative support has slipped.

The article cites a poll by Angus Reid, which indicates that Mark Carney, the frontrunner in the Liberal leadership race, is seen as better equipped to handle Trump on trade issues. As a former central banker for Canada and England, Carney emphasizes his experience managing economic crises, including the 2008 financial crash and Brexit.

Conservatives adjust strategy

With Trump dominating the political conversation, Conservatives have shifted their approach. Their previous slogan, "Canada is Broken," risked appearing unpatriotic, so they have rebranded with "Canada First." Attacks on Carney have also intensified.

Before Trump’s tariffs, the Conservatives painted Carney as "just like Justin," linking him to Trudeau’s unpopular policies. More recently, they have questioned his Canadian loyalty, citing his past role as chair of Brookfield Asset Management, which moved its headquarters from Toronto to New York. Carney insists he had left the firm before the decision, but company records suggest otherwise. The Globe and Mail editorial board has urged him to be transparent, warning that "the next prime minister will have to call on the trust of Canadians to lead the country where it needs to head but may not want to go."

Lyle warns that doubts about Carney’s loyalty could hurt him and the Liberals, given Canadians' heightened anxiety about their national future.

Regardless of when the election is called or who wins, the authors are certain that Trump will continue to shape Canadian politics, just as he has in the US.

By Nazrin Sadigova