How will Georgia’s New Prime Minister tackle domestic discontent? Banging the drum

On February 1, the congress of the ruling Georgian Dream Party nominated its chairman, Irakli Kobakhidze, as the new Prime Minister of Georgia to replace Irakli Garibashvili. The surprise move came amid ongoing political disputes in Georgia regarding the well-known business and political figure Bidzina Ivanishvili’s decision to return to politics.

The former prime minister and the wealthiest man in the country, Ivanishvili, appears to be a controversial figure, with many accusing him of "being pro-Russian," while the country's main political agenda remains pro-Western. Ivanishvili explained his decision by the "complicated" geopolitical situation and the opposition's failure to hold the government to account.

Georgian Dream party members voted unanimously to back Kobakhidze as premier at a congress in Tbilisi despite the country's long-held ambitions to join both NATO and the European Union.

However, the ruling Georgian government came under fire recently due to its stance regarding the Russo-Ukraine war and former PM Irakli Garibashvili's infamous statement that Ukraine was partially to blame for Russia's full-scale war. Moreover, Georgia has also refrained from joining sanctions against Russia, often citing that doing so would harm its own economic interests.

Georgian Dream consistently paints itself as a champion of peace, contrasting it with the opposition, media, NGOs, and Western allies, whom it designates as "destructive powers." Indeed, Irakli Kobakhidze's appointment raised eyebrows in the West due to his prominent anti-Western stance and bellicose rhetoric. Unlike his predecessor Garibashvili, who maintained a relatively stable partnership with the West, Kobakhidze frequently criticizes the US and the collective West for their attempts to drag "Georgia into the Ukraine war".

Despite the GD government’s position, the country’s president, Salome Zourabichvili, has denounced the anti-Western rhetoric often repeated by Kobakhidze and other Georgian Dream politicians. Another important behind the GD government’s harsh criticism of the West is the EU’s earlier decision "to postpone Georgia's EU candidate status," which sparked huge discontent in Tbilisi. After a diplomatic confrontation and a war of words, the EU granted the candidate status to Georgia in December 2023.

However, this time, the EU favoured Ukraine and Moldova membership over Georgia, which left the country a bit disappointed as many civil society organizations played along out of a patriotic desire to see Georgia advance towards the EU toward this goal. This synergy of Georgians’ European identity, the ruling party’s geopolitical blackmail, EU strategic thinking, and Georgian civil society organizations’ Euro-patriotism might yet land Georgia the EU candidate status.

Despite his crucial position, Irakli Kobakhidze is not a popular political figure in Georgia, as several major political scandals emerged in the country during his term as the parliament speaker. As a result, he was forced to resign due to unprecedented criticism and mass protests in Tbilisi.

Nevertheless, given his loyalty, the GD appointed him to another key position, the chair of the ruling party, thus demonstrating the necessary managerial skills. Such an attitude paved the way for Kobakhidze to rise to the top position in Georgia in 2024.

After Irakli Kobakhidze’s introduction as the new Prime Minister on February 2, an updated government program entitled “Towards Building a European State” was published. This new program, however, is similar to the previous one and does not contain a formal shift in Georgia’s foreign policy. Further, success in Euro-Atlantic integration and deepening relations with the United States remains the most critical foreign political task.

Instead, Kobakhidze will likely push for deeper partnerships with other global powers, namely China. Georgia remains China's key trade partner and main destination of Georgian wine in the South Caucasus.

The opposition parties were critical of Kobakhidze's program. Questions focused on issues related to unemployment, poverty, corruption, demographics, infrastructure projects, political polarization, and pensions. Kobakhidze mostly shied away from giving concrete answers to specific questions, sticking to generalities.

As expected, Kobakhidze vowed to focus on developing the economy, increasing the national GDP, fighting poverty, and boosting partnerships with neighbouring countries. However, considering the tumultuous period of Georgian domestic policy and frequent mass protests against the government, Irakli Kobakhidze has yet to obtain a clear vision or roadmap to address all critical concerns within Georgia before the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2024.