Hungary’s next move may shape future of EU sanctions on Russia

In a recent article, Euractiv highlights that diplomats are closely watching Hungary’s next move as the EU faces a crucial decision on whether to extend its sanctions against Russia.

With the March 15 deadline fast approaching, many believe Hungary may be holding back, waiting for the right moment to leverage its influence in what is expected to be a high-stakes confrontation. As the EU prepares for this significant challenge, Hungary’s strategic silence has raised speculation about its demands and the potential impact on the future of EU-Russia relations.

EU leaders successfully sidestepped Hungary’s attempt to derail their Ukraine summit last week, but diplomats are now bracing for a tough showdown over Russia sanctions in the coming days. During a largely smooth EU summit, Hungary's refusal to sign a statement that was "firmly supported" by all other EU leaders did not derail proceedings. Instead, EU leaders found a way to work around Budapest, which seemed unconcerned by its isolation. 

This marks a shift in the EU's approach, as Hungary was unable to block foreign policy decisions as it has in the past. Some EU officials even suggested that bypassing Hungary could become a more common tactic in the future. However, several EU diplomats privately expressed surprise that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is known for leveraging his position to extract concessions from Brussels, did not make demands this time. According to sources, he did not raise any contentious issues, such as sanctions on Russia, during the meeting. 

Orbán’s more passive stance could be linked to the fact that no major decisions were made during the summit. However, the next summit on March 20 could prove more contentious. Diplomats speculate that Hungary may be holding back in anticipation of the significant challenge ahead—deciding whether to extend a package of EU sanctions against Russia. The sanctions package, which targets individuals and entities involved in undermining Ukraine's sovereignty, is set for renewal by March 15 and requires unanimous approval from all 27 EU countries. This time, Hungary's leverage is far more significant, as the sanctions cannot proceed without its consent. Orbán now has the upper hand in negotiations, with the potential to demand concessions or threaten to block the deal entirely. 

The EU sanctions, which include travel bans and asset freezes, currently target over 2,400 individuals and entities accused of contributing to the destabilization of Ukraine. Hungary has long used the periodic renewal process as a bargaining tool, seeking the removal of certain individuals from the blacklist. Recently, Hungary expressed its desire to remove eight individuals from the EU’s Russia sanctions list and to secure further concessions related to gas transit agreements with Ukraine. Hungary’s permanent representation to the EU has yet to confirm which individuals are on its target list. The timing of Hungary’s demands is significant, as US President Donald Trump has indicated that Washington might lift sanctions on Russia in exchange for a peace deal. 

This potential shift has emboldened Hungary, which is likely to increase its opposition to the EU's Russia sanctions in the coming weeks. Following a visit to Washington last week, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó stated that Hungary expects a response to a letter sent to the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, regarding Hungary's gas dispute with Ukraine before deciding on its position on the sanctions extension. Hungary and Slovakia have been engaged in a prolonged dispute with Ukraine after the latter canceled an agreement that facilitated the flow of Russian gas to the EU. 

Despite several rounds of talks mediated by the European Commission, no resolution has been reached. In January, Hungary lifted its veto on the six-month extension of the EU's sanctions regime, but only after receiving a non-binding joint statement assuring that Hungary’s gas concerns would be taken seriously in Brussels.

This week, EU ambassadors have three opportunities to reach an agreement on the sanctions extension—on March 10, March 12, and March 14, if necessary. If no deal is reached by the end of the week, the EU could face an unprecedented situation, with the sanctions list set to expire. As the March 15 deadline approaches, all eyes will be on Hungary’s next move, with the potential to reshape EU-Russia relations and the broader geopolitical landscape.

By Naila Huseynova