Is Moldova Russia’s next conquest? Chisinau’s fight to avoid becoming Moscow’s domino

In early February of 2023, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, in one of his statements, claimed that the national intelligence service intercepted a Russian plan to destabilize an already volatile political situation in Moldova. The reports regarding Russia’s possible attack on Moldova became a hot topic since the end of 2022, as the Moldovan authorities warned that the small country could soon become a target of Moscow’s expansionism in the post-Soviet region.

In recent years, the former Soviet state has taken a pro-Western turn, drawing Moscow’s ire. Amid the tensions, Moldova’s President Sandu issued a direct accusation that Russia was seeking to take advantage of the situation. Hence, Moldova turned to Western partners, notably NATO, to boost its defence capabilities and seek additional military aid. This should not come as a surprise, as Moldova has a tiny defence budget and has long had tense relations with Moscow.

The same position has been stressed by the national intelligence agency claiming that Russia plans to invade the Republic of Moldova in early 2023, but the implementation of this scenario depends on the development of the conflict in Ukraine.

Moldova, a small country on Ukraine’s western border, is seen as vulnerable to a potential escalation of the war in Ukraine. Part of its territory, the Transnistria region, has been controlled for decades by Russia-backed separatists. Undoubtedly, the Russian authorities were angered by recent comments from Moldovan President Maia Sandu regarding Russia's provocations and the country's bid to NATO for military assistance.

Moreover, contrary to the Moldovan claims, Moscow has accused Ukraine of planning to stage a false flag attack as a pretext for Kyiv invading Moldova's breakaway Transnistria region. Russia is convinced that Ukraine aims to open another anti-Russian front in the region, though there is no substantial evidence.

When the invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, Moscow seemed confident that it would be a "short victorious war", swiftly turning to a war of attrition with human casualties mounting significantly. As such, after South Ossetia, Crimea and Ukraine, Russia may now be coveting two Eastern European territories, Moldova and Transnistria. As of today, Russia has troops and peacekeepers based in Transdniestria, a breakaway statelet of Moldova that has survived for three decades with the Kremlin’s support. Given this nuance, Moldova is worried that Russians could use heavy weaponry to attack Moldova from the warehouses in the village of Cobasna, located in the separatist region of Transnistria.

Russia’s growing pressure on Moldova may also be attributed to the pro-Western government’s strong support to Ukraine amid its struggle with the invasion and its bid to join the European Union (EU) soon. However, the EU membership path for Moldova will not be so smooth and swift due to several reasons, such as transparent governance and anti-corruption policy. Therefore, the only viable option for Moldova now is to request European partners for more air defence systems and military aid packages.

Notwithstanding the war of words, Moldova still depends on Russia in terms of fossil fuel exports. When the diplomatic rifts occurred with Chisinau, Moscow cut natural gas to Moldova by more than 30 per cent and threatened to cut the amount of gas again in an attempt to weaponize the energy factor. Therefore, Moldova sought alternative suppliers such as Azerbaijan and Romania to wean itself from Russian influence.

As in the case with the rest of Europe, Russia's long-term energy weapon steadily lost its effectiveness, as the EU partly recovered from the energy deficit by reaching out non-European energy partners for additional fossil fuels. Moreover, Moldova temporarily suspended six Russian TV channels because of "false information" about the country and the war in Ukraine, seemingly adding more fuel to the current confrontation.

As the war is raging in Ukraine, Russia will likely seek new sources to destabilize the region and open a new front against NATO allies to exert more pressure. However, the consolidation of the Moldovan government in light of Russia’s assertive policy suggests that Moscow’s further expansionism in this region may backfire soon.