ISW analysts unveil Iran's ambitious goals in Syria and Iraq: Power play for regional dominance MAP/PHOTO

Iran is reportedly feeling more vulnerable due to recent military setbacks, including the fall of the Assad regime, Israeli military actions targeting Iranian air defences and missile production, and losses suffered by Hamas and Hezbollah.

As a result, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has increased its military drills, Caliber.Az reports, citing ISW.

Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini, IRGC spokesperson, told the Financial Times that Iran has doubled the number of military exercises this year in response to the evolving threat landscape.

Naeini stated that the IRGC has also expanded the participation of brigades involved in realistic operations. This indicates that Iran is preparing for further challenges, particularly after the October 7 War and the loss of its ally Assad's regime.

In response, the IRGC and Artesh plan to conduct 30 joint land, air, and naval exercises in western and southern provinces before mid-March. Naeini announced that a large naval parade will be held in the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February to showcase new equipment.

Additionally, Brigadier General Qader Rahimzadeh, Commander of the Khatam ol Anbia Joint Air Defense Headquarters, confirmed that a nationwide joint air defense exercise would occur soon, using "new and unknown systems."

In a separate development, Iraqi media reports suggest that the HTS-led government in Syria has taken action against misconduct by pro-HTS forces near the Sayyida Zeinab shrine in Damascus. On January 6, Baghdad Today reported that HTS withdrew 90 international fighters from the shrine following complaints about their behaviour. 

The misconduct, which was associated with a video featuring "sectarian content," prompted HTS to issue strict orders prohibiting any further imagery or videos from the holy sites due to their potential to inflame sectarian tensions.

In another development, Iraqi media reported the redeployment of Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) brigades from the Syria-Iraq border. This follows Iranian Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani's meetings with senior Iraqi officials and militia commanders to discuss "restructuring" the PMF.

A source in Anbar Province also told the media that Iraqi police had replaced the PMF units and assumed control of security checkpoints in al Qaim.

Qaani reportedly told the Iraqi prime minister that Iran does not want Iraq to engage in any conflict with Syria. This cautious approach likely stems from the need for Iraqi militias to reorganize and re-equip after their rapid withdrawal from Syria. Iran, currently focused on maintaining stability in Iraq, does not want Iraqi militias to engage in border skirmishes, as it would complicate the reorganization process.

In summary, the Axis of Resistance, including Iran, aims to strengthen its influence over Iraq, harden the Iraqi government against internal dissent, and maintain stability in the region. 

However, Iran's growing vulnerability suggests that it may be willing to stoke instability in Syria to weaken the HTS-led interim government, potentially affecting its broader regional strategy.

By Aghakazim Guliyev